New York, NY --(Ammoland.com)- This e-brief “Unlikely Consensus” discusses the coming UN Arms Trade Treaty and the possible splinter organization that is forming and helps people make sense of what’s going on, in relation to export-minded firearms business, marketing shooting, hunting, or security products or services abroad.
If things go one way, it looks like major regions of the world are going to close their doors to American exports in the form of follow-on non tariff barriers.
The e-brief summarizes key context and factors, and estimates various scenarios and their probabilities. The research and analysis is based on insights from and direct talks with all sides of the debate, including diplomats, activists, and businesses.
TSM Worldwide LLC has published its executive e-briefing of selected context and issues going into the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) Conference scheduled for 18-28 March 2013 in New York. It also models five possible outcomes and explains the key factors for why consensus is possible, but not likely.
This concise resource can serve as a sense-making tool for diplomats, international legal specialists, civil society activists, trade groups, academics, students, and strategic business leaders alike.
The author, a former military diplomat and strategy leader at a leading defense/aerospace company, consulted over thirty ATT process insiders to develop this his assessment. For example, this e-briefing incorporates insights and feedback from members of State delegations, humanitarian and arms rights civil society groups, academics and policy analysts, business managers, and trade associations. It also includes original statistical analysis and several insightful graphics that help illustrate the points made.
The e-brief “Unlikely Consensus” endeavors to:
1. Explain how a faction of approximately 30 countries presents a major wildcard for the Conference and what their vision for a future treaty might entail if they decide to break consensus to realize it.
2. Explore the multi-dimensional quantitative challenge of commanding consensus by examining estimated opposition and support for the ATT, and to suggest where and how prospects for consensus could be improved the most.
3. Describe three assumptions widely held by some States and their humanitarian partners, and explain why these assumptions are perceived as a form of misguided or dishonest humanitarianism which drives against consensus.
4. Survey several complexities with respect to the United States, and highlight three conditions the ATT must meet if it is ever to be ratified there.
5. Present a probability framework for five potential scenarios with respect to reaching consensus at the Conference.
6. Explain why the most likely scenario for the Conference is that a faction breaks consensus by mounting a coup to pursue their own more progressive version of the ATT.
After reading a preliminary draft, one diplomat assigned to the UN based in Geneva said: “This is extremely interesting and I will send it to my colleagues who will represent us at the Conference later this month.”
The e-briefing is approximately 25 pages and is for sale on Amazon.com for use on all Kindle readers, tablets PCs, ipods, and smart phones through Amazon’s free Kindle ap. The price is $2.99 USD. Click here to link to Amazon.com
TSM Worldwide LLC is a business consultancy & service partner focused on providing discreet market and non-market strategic services to firms and organizations committed to the international shooting, hunting, and outdoor recreation industry.