Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs Post-Election Analysis

By Rob Nixon, State House Strategies, LLC
(ANJRPC Lobbyist)

Governor Christie
There really wasn’t a doubt from every indication that Governor Christie would come out on top on election night.
Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs
Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs

Trenton, NJ –-(Ammoland.com)- Analysis of the New Jersey Governor’s Race
It took only one minute after the polls closed for Governor Christie to be declared the victor in his re-election match with Democrat Barbara Buono. While the exit polling and computer modeling that makes such a quick prediction possible are fascinating, there really wasn’t a doubt from every indication that Governor Christie would come out on top on election night.

The Governor’s win was as complete as any candidate could hope for. He swept every county but 2 (Essex and Hudson) and didn’t lose those by the typical margins Republicans have experienced previously. He racked up huge totals in GOP Counties (Ocean County alone gave him an 87,000 plurality). He won by increasing his 2009 totals among women, Hispanics, African Americans and independents. And it certainly didn’t hurt that dozens of Democrats – elected officials and party leaders – backed his re-election.

The race is historically significant when compared to other recent elections for Governor. Governor Christie becomes the first Governor to win re-election since Christie Whitman in 1997. He is the first Governor to win more than 50% of the vote since Governor Kean in 1985 and in winning 60% of the vote he far exceeded totals for every Governors race since that historic 1985 win. The Governor easily exceeded the numbers of counties he won, total votes won and margin of victory when compared to his 2009 election.

The numbers reflect a combination of factors that are unique to Chris Christie and that no one else in the nation seems to possess. He showed in four years that he is a master communicator who connects to people even while relying on a “my way or the highway” leadership style. Yet, he made bi-partisan cooperation with Democrats, in and out of the Legislature, a centerpiece of his first term and spoke often of it in his campaign. And, agree or disagree with him, there was never any doubt about what he wanted to do and how he would do it.

When compared to the lack of leadership, constant policy shifts, partisan bickering and inability to govern that has recently plagued Washington, DC, the Governor offered a stark contrast about government management that he didn’t hesitate to use in his victory speech.

2016 Talk Begins
A win of this nature has propelled the Governor to the upper echelon of potential 2016 Presidential candidates. And while the prospect of being in that discussion must be thrilling, the fact that the next Presidential election is 3 years away will force the Governor to temper the public discussion on the matter for now. It is very easy for potential candidates who burn bright to burn out fast when their opponents (from within and without) have plenty of time to try to snuff out that light. To date, the Governor has kept the 2016 talk off the table. At some point, however, the planning necessary for a Presidential run would require him to make a decision about making all that talk around him official or not.

Democrats Maintain Control Of The Legislature But Lose Seats In Assembly
Though the Governor was an easy winner, his popularity didn’t extend to Republicans running for the Senate and Assembly in the vast majority of Districts. But as significant as the size of the Governor’s margin of victory was, it also had to compete with the reality of the boundaries of the 40 Legislative Districts which were redesigned after the 2010 census to protect incumbents.

Key Districts Results
In the 1st Legislative District, Republicans won an Assembly seat with Sam Fiocchi’s defeat of incumbent Assemblyman Nelson Albano. Albano was heavily targeted in the race over accusations he wrongly accused a State Trooper of misconduct during a traffic stop which generated an ethics investigation. Senator Jeff Van Drew (D) won easily but couldn’t pull along his running mate Albano through his difficulties.

The 3rd Legislative District in many ways became the centerpiece of the GOP attack to win control of the Senate. Home to Senate President Steve Sweeney (D), the District was targeted early by Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean, Jr. under the premise that an expected Christie win in the District would put the seat in play and that Sweeney would be forced to spend money at home rather than in other key Districts. With more than a million dollars spent on the race and rising bad blood between the two Senate leaders, Sweeney won reelection with a 10 point cushion.

District 14 was considered in the top two competitive Districts in the State. The Republicans had recruited popular former Senator Pete Inverso out of retirement to face off against Democratic Senator Linda Greenstein. The Governor campaigned for Inverso and local races in the Districts hub of Hamilton that favored Republicans seemed to keep the race in play. But Greenstein proved again to be a passionate campaigner and her bona fides with the Districts strong public sector union base kept her on top. Her win this year likely takes the District off the “targeted list” for the near future.

The 16th Legislative District has long been a GOP stronghold. But redistricting added Democratic votes that appeared to change the dynamics of the District. Democrat Marie Corfield wasn’t given much hope when she ran for Assembly in 2011 but her close loss gave Democrats a belief they could pick up a GOP seat. Independent PAC’s funneled cash into the race to bash the GOP incumbents (especially Assemblywoman Donna Simon) and Corfield’s third attempt for Assembly for a brief period forced Republican leaders to focus time and money in the 16th. But at the end of the day, the Republican incumbent legislators, Senator Kip Bateman, Assemblywoman Simon and Assemblyman Jack Ciatterelli won comfortably.

In the Middlesex County based 18th Legislative Districts, Republicans had personal reasons to fight for what are usually reliable Democratic seats. The home district of Senator Buono, both the Governor and County GOP leaders hoped to send a message there on election night. The GOP had recruited East Brunswick Mayor Dave Stahl to switch parties and run for the open Senate seat against Democratic Assemblyman Peter Barnes. The District became slightly more Democratic after redistricting and Edison, the key town in the District, had a significant local election that likely drove up turnout as well to assist the victorious Democratic Senate and Assembly candidates.

But for many, the marquee battle of election night took place in the 38th Legislative District in Bergen County. Known for decades as a competitive district, the 38th featured a battle for State Senate between incumbent Democrat Bob Gordon and Republican Fernando Alonso. The race was expensive and Governor Christie weighed in heavily to attack Senator Gordon as an obstructionist to his agenda.

But while Gordon pulled out a close win, the impact of an intense campaign on the Assembly candidates remained tight after the votes were counted. Preliminary returns showed a spread of only 300 votes between the top vote getter (Republican challenger Joe Lagana) and the last place finisher. Only a few dozen votes made up the difference between all the candidates and as this article goes to press it is possible there could be significant changes in the District.

If the results hold up following review of provisional ballots and a likely recount, the race will end with a split Assembly tandem of Republican Lagana and Democrat Joe Scarpa. The closeness of the race and potential for any outcome after review makes it certain the 2015 Assembly campaign in District 38 will be the main event once again.

So in the end it appears clear the Governor has significant personal popularity that didn’t translate to coattails to compete with incumbent friendly legislative districts. The Senate remains a 24-16 Democratic majority and, pending the appropriate review in District 38, the Democratic majority will possibly decrease in the Assembly to 46-34.

Election Aftermath in Trenton
Legislative business will resume this month in Trenton as the Senate and Assembly look to complete the session before the new Legislature is sworn in on January 14, 2014. The post election session can either be a calm few weeks or a free-for-all. Will Democrats want to try and damage the Governor’s image by pushing issues they suspect he will veto or will the bipartisanship continue into 2014? Which one we can expect will likely be revealed only a few days after the election.

These questions are especially pertinent on gun issues where many Democrats want to fight back against several of the Governor’s vetoes of the gun control package passed over the summer.

About Association of New Jersey Rifle & Pistol Clubs:The Association of New Jersey Rifle and Pistol Clubs, Inc. is the official NRA State Association in New Jersey. Our mission is to implement all of the programs and activities at the state level that the NRA does at the national level. This mission includes the following: To support and defend the constitutional rights of the people to keep and bear arms. To take immediate action against any legislation at the local, state and federal level that would infringe upon these rights. Visit: www.anjrpc.org