What We Know About the Next Mass Murder

What We Know About the Next Mass Murder
What We Know About the Next Mass Murder
Slow Facts
Slow Facts

Louisiana- (Ammoland.com)- We can not identify the next public murderer.

We do not know his name or where he lives.  Despite the unknown details, there are clear trends from past events.

We do know that he is probably not a trained terrorist, but an individual who lashed out with this one violent act.  The most important fact is that we know there will be another public mass murder.  We also know there are actions we can take now that will reduce the damage to come.  This is what is likely to happen.

Who is the murderer?

Like his predecessors, the next mass murderer will have a history of mental illness.   He will not be flagged as a mental health risk to himself or others despite that history.  The murderer will have either failed repeatedly as a student or have been fired by several employers depending on the murderer’s age and the onset of mental health problems.  The murderer will also have broken relationships with his family and friends.  Some will be his fault, and some of the broken relationships will be due to unfortunate circumstances.

In his mind, these slights justify the murder of innocents.  The murderer will probably play violent video games as he substitutes an online fantasy where he can succeed for the literal reality where he fails. These game become an outlet for his anger.

How will the murderer attack his victims?

The murderer may plan his attack for years before he acts.  The murderer will use a mechanical device to gain an advantage in the attack.  The tool may be a knife, a car, a bomb or a gun.  The murderer will scout and analyse the location where he plans to attack his victims.  The murderer will pass a background check if he buys a firearm.  The murderer will probably attack innocent victims in a so called “gun-free zone” where honest citizens are disarmed.

What will happen during the attack?

If armed civilians are present, then the murderer will kill 2 to 3 people before he is stopped.  The murderer will kill 14 to 15 people if the murderer can kill freely until the police arrive.  The murderer will not get into a protracted gun battle with armed guardians.  He will take his own life or surrender.

How will the media react?

Initially, the media will speculate wildly as to the murderer’s motive and method.  The media may even mis-identify the murderer and the murder weapon.  The media will eventually identify the murderer by name.  They will then make the murderer into a celebrity as they repeat his name and show his face for hour after hour.. and day after day.  That is the all-important payoff for most mass murderers.

What will be the political reaction?

The groups who want civilians disarmed will come out with exaggerated figures about the attack.  They will inflate the rate of violence in the United States and demand that only the police have guns.  These anti-rights spokesmen will include paid anti-gun groups, celebrities seeking attention, and politicians seeking campaign cash.  The NRA will be blamed for the attack.

What will the anti-rights groups say?

The anti-rights groups will call for further restrictions on gun ownership.  When examined in the clarity of hindsight, these proposed restrictions would stop neither this mass murder nor the previous mass murders.  The anti-rights groups will say “We have to do something”.  The anti-gun bigots will demand another law even though they have already passed 23 thousand firearms laws that did not prevent this crime.

They will claim they can stop evil men by disarming honest men.  Though it now sounds foolish in the calm light of reason, this emotional appeal to “do something” will persuade the low information citizen who only reads the headlines.

Can we help the mentally ill?

The mentally ill need treatment.  Friends, family and colleagues should help the mentally ill get the professional help they need.  We know that the mentally ill are less violent when they are treated.  We know they are less violent when they are on medication.  Unfortunately, mental health professionals can not predict if and when their patients will be violent.  The best minds in the world can’t make that determination.

Can we protect our churches and schools?

Fortunately, most violence is not a case of mass murder.  Many of the safety measures that protect us every day also reduce the damage caused by a deliberate public murderer.  We should design and modify our schools and offices with physical safety in mind.  We can easily limit a murderer’s access, his mobility and his visibility.  This can be as simple as changing the way doors lock and putting curtains and plastic films on windows.

Schools with Glass Block Windows
Can we protect our churches and schools?

What can we do today?

We should practice regular physical safety drills with police and emergency medical personnel.  Schools and public buildings should have simulated drills so the police and staff know who to contact and what to do.

What can we do until help arrives?

We can train staff to stop an active murderer and to keep the injured alive.  Many of us have received some level of emergency medical training.  We should pre-position medical trauma packs in place.

What laws and regulations should we change?

People at the scene of the crime are the first responders.  About one out of 15 adults has a license to carry a concealed weapon.  They carry everywhere they are legally allowed, both at home and at work.   The so called “gun free zones” only turn aside honorable people and leave murderers unopposed.  To allow these licensed carriers to protect themselves and others, we must remove the regulatory barriers of “gun-free zones”.  We should also change laws to hold property owners liable for the “gun free zones” they leave in place.

We can shame the media who turn the killer into a celebrity.

This is what we know and what we can do today.  We can reduce the damage caused by the next mass murderer.. or we can wait and do nothing as they kill again.

About Rob Morse: Rob writes about gun rights at Ammoland, at Clash Daily and on his SlowFacts blog.   He co-hosts the Polite Society Podcast.  He is also an NRA pistol instructor and combat handgun competitor.

  • 9 thoughts on “What We Know About the Next Mass Murder

    1. If violent crime is to be curbed, it is only the intended victim who can do it.
      The felon does not fear the Laws, police, prison, judge nor jury.
      Therefore what he must be taught is to fear is his victim.

    2. Once again, we see examples of folks who do not understand the precept that ‘correlation does not imply causation’.

      The data showing that many of these mentally disturbed individuals may have been on SSRIs does not imply that the drugs they were on is the cause. That’s as clueless as stating that the mentally disturbed individuals implicated in these tragedies are likely to have seen a psychiatrist at some time and concluding that going to a psychiatrist makes people lash out.

      Quite simply, these are mentally disturbed individuals. A consulting psychiatrist concluded that they were unstable enough that certain drugs might help them, and these drugs can and DO help, with millions of folks worldwide who DON’T go about murdering innocent people, who’ve been able to resume a normal life where they couldn’t prior to being prescribed these medications.

      In some cases, the medications didn’t prevent the actions that resulted in a tragedy.

      Many folks have serious issues with heart disease and high blood pressure. Many are prescribed medications, diets and lifestyles to reduce their chances of cardiac arrest/stroke. It helps many folks. Do you conclude that because some of the people on these medications still die from heart attacks, that the medications/diet/lifestyle changes are the cause? No, these folks were prescribed the medications specifically because they had a much higher risk of having a heart attack. The changes helped many, but unfortunately, not all.

      Individuals who are prescribed SSRIs have been evaluated to have psychological issues that warrant prescribing these medications. The medications help many (in fact, most), but unfortunately, not all.

    3. Along with mental instability, reports after mass killings also seem to indict (more often than not) the perpetrators recent use of anti-psychotic drugs; including SSRIs. I cannot recall one mass killing where this was not the case.

    4. In the past there were assertions by pro gun writers that it is not easy to profile what type of individual will be a mass killer. The main thing most of the mass killers have in common is immaturity.There are other factors like being white males and social rejects, so traditional cultural white entitlement, also works with the immaturity to promote violence. The most immature group in any society due to societies demands for delayed entry into adult responsibility are students. A study was done in the 60’s/70’s in terms of the mental health of college students and it was discovered that most students in higher education are not mentally healthy and have higher rate of neurotic behavior, depression and other forms of mental disorders. The reason seems to be that prolonged adolescence and dependence on others such as parents tends to retard personal development in some key areas that lead to mental fitness and maturity. We all know this and its expected of students, but due to the way youth are parented, with higher expectations and more protection from real life, the problems and issues have gotten worse since the mid century when the studies were done. With the connection between mass shootings and delayed maturity it is no coincidence that most mast shooters are in their early 20’s. Not employed and students, with mental development imbalanced by years of being in classrooms divorced from real life and real achievement, and the type of validation that comes from having a job, family and responsibility, most mass shooting have taken place on college campuses, or high schools as was the case with Columbine, or in the case of Sandy Hook the shooter was very immature and mentally disabled and attacked a school because the shooter was still like a dependent child living at home etc.
      It is a known fact that immature individuals lash out violently and blame others. When dealing with a child its called a temper tantrum. When dealing with an adolescent it can lead to bullying others, juvenile delinquency, and gang violence. Most of us work through being kids and students without harming others because we learned coping skills from our parents, and had support networks. Mature individuals when faced with setbacks, failure, poor health or mental issues such as depression have enough strength and character not to blame others. Hence mature individuals will direct the violence against themselves in the form of drinking and suicide. Right now for example the mortality rate for middle age whites without a high school education is on the rise, while the mortality rate for every other demographic is trending lower, and one of the main factors are drinking, drugs and suicide….all self destructive behaviors. The main point here is more can be done to profile this known demographic. It should start as early as Jr. High. All students should get psych evaluations and be profiled by their teachers to flag students who are mentally immature and who have poor coping skills or who are socially isolated. The high school principal of the Sandy Hook shooter actually tried to intervene and make a difference in the shooter life, but was thwarted by the system and the shooters parent. We need to give 3rd parties with influence more authority to flag and channel potential threats onto safer paths. It can be done without violating the rights of students and their privacy. More also needs to be done on the college level to monitor the mental health of students and to identify potential threats. Instead of more gun control laws we need to shift the focus to training schools and counselors to performing pro active screening, and working with law enforcement to make sure such individuals once identified are lawfully monitored on a regular basis even if they have a right to own guns.

    5. You forgot the one “coincidence” that msm fails to report on and investigate. ALL of these freaks of nature were on SSRI drugs.

    6. “We can reduce the damage caused by the next mass murderer.. or we can wait and do nothing as they kill again.
      I’m betting on socialists/democrats – wait and do nothing as they kill again. That is what they have done in the past, bet on it in the future.

    7. I was taught young that distance and movement was your friend in getting away from gunmen. If you can’t fight , flight .Not hide in a closet and die.

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