What Bernie & The Donald Portend

By Pat Buchanan

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Pat Buchanan
Patrick J .Buchanan

USA –  -(Ammoland.com)-  Three weeks out from the Iowa caucuses, and clarity emerges.

Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, is in trouble.

Polls show her slightly ahead of Socialist Bernie Sanders in Iowa, but narrowly behind in New Hampshire.

And the weekend brought new revelations about yet more classified and secret documents sent over her private email server when she was secretary of state.

Between now and November, she will be traversing a minefield, with detonations to be decided upon by FBI investigators who may not cherish Clinton, and might like to appear in the history books.

Clinton's charge about Donald Trump's alleged “penchant for sexism” brought a counterstrike — her being the “enabler” of Bill Clinton's long career as a sexual predator — that rendered her mute.

But with Hillary Clinton having raised the subject, it is almost certain to be reintroduced in the fall, if she is the nominee.

Then there is the newly recognized reality that Clinton, who ran a terrific comeback race against Barack Obama in 2008, is not the candidate she was. Nor is Bill the imposing surrogate he once was.

Both are eight years older, and show it. “Low energy” nails it. Lastly, Hillary Clinton now has a record to defend as secretary of state, a four-year term in which it is hard to see, looking back, a success.

Moreover, a defeat by Sanders in Iowa or New Hampshire could prove unraveling, with the press herd tapping out early obits. New Hampshire has consequences.

A Granite State defeat by Sen. Estes Kefauver ended Harry Truman's bid for re-election in 1952. Lyndon Johnson's narrow write-in victory over Sen. Eugene McCarthy, 49-42, brought Bobby Kennedy into the race — and LBJ's withdrawal two weeks later.

George H. W. Bush's unimpressive New Hampshire win in 1992 brought Ross Perot in as a third-party candidate two days later, and Bob Dole's loss in 1996 portended defeat in the general election.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

But if a cloud is forming over the Clinton campaign, the sun continues to shine on The Donald.

Last July, in a column, “Could Trump Win?” this writer argued that if Trump held his then 20 percent share, he would make the final four and almost surely be in the finals in the GOP nomination race.

Now, in every national and state poll save Iowa, Trump runs first with more than 30 percent, sometimes touching 40. And, save in New Hampshire, Sen. Ted Cruz runs second to Trump.

What does the surge for Socialist Sanders, and the Republican base's backing of the outsiders Trump and Cruz, and collective recoil from the Republican establishment candidates, tell us?

“The times they are a changing,” sang Bob Dylan in 1964.

Dylan was right about the social, cultural and moral revolution that would hit with Category 5 force when the boomers arrived on campuses that same year.

A concomitant conservative revolution would dethrone the GOP establishment of Govs. Nelson Rockefeller, George Romney and William Scranton in 1964, and nominate Barry Goldwater.

Something like that is afoot again. Only, this time, the GOP has a far better shot of capturing the White House than in 1964 or, indeed, than it appeared to have at this point in 1980, The Year of Reagan.

In June 1964, Goldwater, about to be nominated, was 59 points behind LBJ, 77-18, in the Gallup Poll. On Sept. 1, he was still 36 points behind, 65-29. In mid-October, Barry was still 36 points behind, when some of us concluded that Mr. Conservative just might not make it.

Yet, in January and February of 1980, Ronald Reagan, during the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, never got closer than 25 points behind President Jimmy Carter, who led Reagan, on March 1, 58-33. Yet, that November, 1980, Reagan won a 44-state landslide.

Today, according to a new Fox Poll, Trump would beat Clinton by 3 points in the general election, if held now. Another poll shows Trump pulling 20 percent of the Democratic vote.

What this suggests is that nominating Trump is by no means a guarantee of GOP defeat. But beyond politics, what do the successes of Sanders, Trump and Cruz portend?

Well, Sanders and Trump both opposed the war in Iraq that the Bush Republicans and Clinton Democrats supported.

Both Sanders and Trump oppose NAFTA and MFN for China and the free-trade deals that Clinton Democrats and Bush Republicans backed, which have cost us thousands of lost factories, millions of lost jobs, and four decades of lost wage increases for Middle America.

Trump has taken the toughest line on the invasion across the U.S.-Mexican border and against Muslim refugees entering unvetted.
Immigration, securing the border, fair trade — Trump's issues are the issues of 2016.

If a Trump-Clinton race came down to the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, and Trump was for backing our men in blue, gun rights, securing America's borders, no more NAFTAs, and a foreign policy that defends America first, who would you bet on?

 

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of the new book “The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority.

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    DeadeyeJohnWinston SmitholdshooterJoeUSooner Recent comment authors
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    Deadeye
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    Deadeye

    Please starve the Troll..John C is always on these sites posting comments..He gets paid for all posts he musters from good folks that believe he is a lost soul..John C is nothing but a troll trying to side track Conservatives..Please don’t RESPOND to him..Thank you and God Bless the USA..

    John
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    John

    Oldshooter – I was drafted in 1971 and voted for McGovern in 72 as I thought that might very well keep me alive. Voting in your own self interest seemed simple back then but guys (and ladies) our age know it’s not. God, family, country. What have we allowed our country to become? We put socialists in the White House, ignore the Constitution, enable the politicizing of our courts system, and add trillions to the national debt, a burden that our kids (or their kids) will have to default on. We can’ stand another 4 years of this much less… Read more »

    Winston Smith
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    Winston Smith

    Oldshooter ,Welcome home my friend , welcome home and thank you! -11 B 20 88-98-

    Winston Smith
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    Winston Smith

    My 85 year old Mother when asked about Trump ,said , “He is a Dick.” , And that perhaps at this point that’s what we need. Well said Mom , well said. I on the other hand would prefer Trump as Secretary of State , or better yet Ambassador to the U.N. Under a Cruz Administration. That would be just plain fun. And to the leftist marxist troll John C above? May not be today , may not be tomorrow , but eventually you will wish you fled to Canada when you had the chance. Payback is coming both hard… Read more »

    oldshooter
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    oldshooter

    I still remember the first election in which I was old enough to be a participant. It was 1964 and the chant in the streets was:
    “Vote for Goldwater in ’64,
    By ’68 we’ll be at war!”
    So I did, and sure enough, we were. I spent 1968 mostly in Viet Nam.

    JoeUSooner
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    JoeUSooner

    When did actual, responsible job performance (which I highly recommend should be a HUGE part of any president’s resume and character) become a second-rate factor in choosing a leader? When did “political correctness” (which will only further Washington’s rotting ineptitude and corruption) become an absolute necessity for any candidate to be considered “acceptable” in the minds of progressive, liberal, and socialist voters? I want a leader who 1) tells the truth – no matter how politically incorrect that telling may be, 2) surrounds himself with able, honest people, 3) knows how to get jobs actually accomplished – not studied, dialogued… Read more »

    AntiProgressive
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    AntiProgressive

    JohnC – You’re a fing lib troll who consistently makes comments on this site in support of the socialist movement. You should be willing to vote for my dog over either of the democrat choices. And no vote is a vote for socialists.

    DanG
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    DanG

    and this is the thinking that has cost the American people in the past. if Trump wins the nomination a vote for any one else is a vote for the further erosion of American values. I agree he may not be the first choice but if he wins the nomination he will be come the ONLY choice to reserve some shred of this once great country.

    lingo
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    lingo

    Ok. Vote for Clinton over Trump. Just remember there’s no crying whe the goat fuckers come for your head……

    Bob Broussard
    Guest
    Bob Broussard

    The Donald should just change his name to “Anyone But Hillary.” He would win by a landslide in a general election. Seriously, America doesn’t need a spokesman in the Whitehouse. America doesn’t need anyone to “sell” American Values to the rest of the world. America needs a Commander In Chief who has a strong financial background and an unnabriged love for this country. Any others need not apply. Donald Trump has those qualities in spades over every other contestant. Sorry to all you Closet Socialists who disagree.

    Jon S
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    Jon S

    JohnC; Trump is not my choice but your thinking is what brought us 4 more years of Obama (certain groups would not vote for a Mormon). Whereas the liberals rally around whoever no matter what. Conservatives ALWAYS want the perfect candidate which does not nor never will exist. Be prepared for Hillary because we will put her there!

    JohnC
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    JohnC

    Trump will continue to embarrass the U.S. Clinton and Sanders will continue the march left. Hopefully Kasich or Rubio can garner the Republican nomination. I will not vote for Trump and will vote against him.

    Smitty
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    Smitty

    Interesting poll… but, it was a Fox News poll. Just saying. Wonder if the CNN poll agrees. Best would be a poll run by an independent source.

    Chuck
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    Chuck

    I say it’s from Ronald to Donald.

    durabo
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    durabo

    Trump is an embarrassment to the USA, but he speaks for Americans who want to preserve our traditions and protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and DDMESTIC. Therefore, if he is the anti-Hillary choice, I will vote for him. Well, not exactly FOR him, but against Satan’s Marxist sister.