By Don McDougall
USA -(Ammoland.com)- This is how polls work, and how their bias is used to beat down Trump and throw the election to Clinton.
I’ll make this a simple example. Let’s use just two groups, the more sophisticated a poll the more groups you have and the more granular the polls can be. You don’t need all that to learn how we’re being lied to.
So let’s look at just men and women. There are 146 million registered voters.
The table below shows the % breakdown by who they support. Also, women usually out participate men in registration by 3%:
Candidate :Men – Women
- Trump: 70% – 32%
- Hillary: 30% – 68%
So roughly it looks pretty even. There are 71.9 million men registered to vote, 74.7 women. Now you get a base number by applying those numbers to the table. (Yes there are some minor rounding adjustments, deal with it for the simple example.)
- Trump (70% of 71.9 + 32% of 74.7) = 74.234 million votes.
- Hillary (30% of 71.9 + 68% of 74.7) = 72.186 million votes.
You’ll have an assignable margin of error, for a poll like this, it is about 4%. So statistically these two candidates are tied. The margin of error means you cannot predict everything exactly, so you have a fudge factor.
So why do all the polls showing Donald J Trump losing by 10 points?
Because at this point the pollsters have to start guessing. It’s called voter enthusiasm, and they take a guess as to how many of Trumps 74.234 million voters will turn out. 126 million people voted in 2012 how many will turn out in 2016? So while the polls are good at predicting how a group of people is divided between the candidates the next step is to see how likely they are actually to vote.
We all watched Carl Rove get it wrong in the 2012 election. He used the turnout from the 2010 mid-term elections and without Barack Obama on the ballot back in 2010 the Democratic candidates suffered. The same thing is happening now. Pollsters are making their best guesses as to voter turn-out. Most of the polls that show Hillary up big are using the 2012 results for turn out and applying it to the current results. However, in the primaries the GOP saw an almost 40% INCREASE in voter turnout.
The Democrats… well, they DROPPED 45%.
Even with all the hoopla about Bernie Sander, their enthusiasm is way down. Remember the rank and file GOP members’ hated Romney and McCain and sat out the elections in 2008 and 2012. Romney won independents, but his party stayed home. Had the GOP turn out in the same percentages as they did for GWB you may not have seen the 2nd term for Obama. While the party elite love Romney, the GOP Electorate saw him as a RINO and did not vote for him.
So what you are seeing is Hillary trying to demonize Trump to drive DOWN his voter turnout.
With the help of the media mafia, any and everything Trump says will be turned negative. The reason is to get his supports to stay home. Their goal is to take the gigantic groundswell of GOP rank and file support and find some way to kill it.
Trump wants to discuss issues giving people a reason to vote FOR him. Hence the economic speech about growth and jobs. The Clinton supporting media simply will not cover this issue or Trump’s speech; preventing him from getting any traction.
Enter Second Amendment
The fact is Negative campaigns’ work. They drive down the turnout and more than often produce a win for the attacking party. So take the media invented claim that Trump called for Clinton’s assignation. The sole purpose of this counter attack is to try and make Trump drop his vocal support for the 2nd Amendment. Defense of 2A is one area that can cripple Hillary.
Well, not all is doom and gloom for those of us who recognize the importance of preserving the 2nd Amendment.
Lose this election to Hillary and our right to own a gun will die within our generation.
The 6 million NRA members affect an election not just with their votes or money, but the fact they will quietly at the range and in a social setting, talk about Hillary and her plan to end the private ownership of firearms in our lifetime.
This is why Hillary supports talk about abolishing the NRA as part of their gun control scheme.
Logic Need Not Enter into the Liberal Polling Results.
So as a closing note consider Colorado, a states that recalled several prominent Democrat politicians and repealed a high capacity magazine ban. Does it make any sense to anyone that a State that forced those two actions over a magazine ban would vote for a candidate who wants to ban all semi-automatic firearms and magazines & have forced gun confiscation?
120,000,000 gun owners will not sit idly by and watch our rights taken away. We will come out to vote in higher than anticipated numbers, and we will NOT vote for Hillary. The fact is gun owners ONLY turn out as a block when our rights are under attack. For all his bluster Barack Obama never threatened us the way Hillary has. We the American gun owner are the wildcard the liberal pollsters don’t know how to account for.
For those of you who think it might be safe to vote for Hillary, I offer this article from Ammoland.com: Hillary’s Position Against Guns in Her Own Words.
So what can you do? Be vocal in your support of 2A. Remind people of Hillary’s plan to ban the private gun ownership in America. Remember her call for a 25% tax on guns and calls for confiscation and her call to ban ALL semi-automatic firearms.
Get active, be supportive, and educate those around you about what we have to lose. Then VOTE!
About Don McDougall:
Don McDougall is an NRA instructor and member of the Los Padres “Friends of the NRA” committee. If he’s not at the range you will find him setting the record straight with on gun issues and gun safety on AmmoLand Shooting Sports News.
No matter what the polls say, we must get out and vote, and we must encourage all like minded Patriots to vote. If Clinton gets in we can kiss our gun rights good-bye. Clinton has already said she will use the UN to rid us of our 2nd Amendment rights. Get the vote out there and keep her out of office!
Just a note, Ammoland is carried by BING and Yahoo news. The articles reach more than just the subscription base. Also they will show up on search engines. I’ve received call from ABC news in Australia about an article written here. Ammoland has a MUCH broader voice than you may know. So while the articles are read my like minded gun owners they also are often the ONLY source of pro 2nd Amendment news on-line.
Very good to know that it gets out to a much wider audience. Thank you for the information!
I can find common ground with the author on every comment but one. He is factually inaccurate re CO having “repealed a high capacity magazine ban.” We DID recall two Democratic legislators (including the Senate President) – and forced the resignation of a third prior to her recall. But the high capacity magazine ban was never successfully repealed. And, had it been repealed in the statehouse, the Governor would not have signed it. To date, that battle is still being waged. And since the CO GOP is, in effect, a clown show, it likely won’t be anytime soon. Certainly not… Read more »
I live in Western Colorado and from the messages I receive, we are very strong for Trump. The only solid Democrats are the Social Service dead heads that have not worked and are food stamp dependent, federal aid leaches. Unless the ballots are mailed to them, most are too lazy to go to a polling place. Many would go to the polling parking lot to steal from peoples cars however. Randy is right about the Denver area and I suspect Boulder, Fort Collins and Greeley are strong in the Democrat arena because of the Liberal Universities in the respective cites.… Read more »
I understand the purpose of the author here, to counter some of the negative thoughts that could drive voters from the polls. But these things need not be discussed amongst those willing to do their part, these discussions need to take place in the public face. To date Trump has spent a little over $5 million on advertising while Billary (intentional) has spent 7 times this amount. I have received my first phone call recently from the Trump campaign saying he can no longer afford to support his campaign out of his own pocket against the massive war chest behind… Read more »
The bit*h needs to be looking at the world through “Bars” with a sentence of “Life In Prison, With No Parole.”
The bull dyke/liberal biased media are just trying to manipulate the polls too,no surprise at all ! The only poll I care about in this election is Election Day !