Would War With Iran Doom Trump?

Opinion

USA and Iran
USA and Iran

USA -(Ammoland.com)- A war with Iran would define, consume and potentially destroy the Trump presidency, but exhilarate the neocon never-Trumpers who most despise the man.

Why, then, is President Donald Trump toying with such an idea?

Looking back at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, wars we began or plunged into, what was gained to justify the cost in American blood and treasure, and the death and destruction we visited upon that region? How has our great rival China suffered by not getting involved?

Oil is the vital strategic Western interest in the Persian Gulf. Yet a war with Iran would imperil, not secure, that interest.

Mass migration from the Islamic world, seeded with terrorist cells, is the greatest threat to Europe from the Middle East. But would not a U.S. war with Iran increase rather than diminish that threat?

Would the millions of Iranians who oppose the mullahs' rule welcome U.S. air and naval attacks on their country? Or would they rally behind the regime and the armed forces dying to defend their country?

“Mr Trump, don't play with the lion's tail,” warned President Hassan Rouhani in July: “War with Iran is the mother of all wars.”

But he added, “Peace with Iran is the mother of all peace.” Rouhani left wide open the possibility of peaceful settlement.

Trump's all-caps retort virtually invoked Hiroshima: “Never, ever threaten the United States again or you will suffer consequences the like of which few throughout history have suffered before.”

When Trump shifted and blurted out that he was open to talks — “No preconditions. They want to meet? I'll meet.” — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo contradicted him: Before any meeting, Iran must change the way they treat their people and “reduce their malign behavior.”

We thus appear to be steering into a head-on collision.

For now that Trump has trashed the nuclear deal and is reimposing sanctions, Iran's economy has taken a marked turn for the worse.

Its currency has lost half its value. Inflation is surging toward Venezuelan levels. New U.S. sanctions will be imposed this week and again in November. Major foreign investments are being canceled. U.S. allies are looking at secondary sanctions if they do not join the strangulation of Iran.

Tehran's oil exports are plummeting along with national revenue. Demonstrations and riots are increasingly common.

Rouhani and his allies who bet their futures on a deal to forego nuclear weapons in return for an opening to the West look like fools to their people. And the Revolutionary Guard Corps that warned against trusting the Americans appears vindicated.

Iran's leaders have now threatened that when their oil is no longer flowing freely and abundantly, Arab oil may be blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz out to Asia and the West.

Any such action would ignite an explosion in oil prices worldwide and force a U.S. naval response to reopen the strait. A war would be on.

Yet the correlation of political forces is heavily weighted in favor of driving Tehran to the wall. In the U.S., Iran has countless adversaries and almost no advocates. In the Middle East, Israelis, Saudis and the UAE would relish having us smash Iran.

Among the four who will decide on war, Trump, Pompeo and John Bolton have spoken of regime change, while Defense Secretary James Mattis has lately renounced any such strategic goal.

With Israel launching attacks against Iranian-backed militia in Syria, U.S. ships and Iranian speedboats constantly at close quarters in the Gulf, and Houthi rebels in Yemen firing at Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb entrance to the Red Sea, a military clash seems inevitable.

While America no longer has the ground forces to invade and occupy an Iran four times the size of Iraq, in any such war, the U.S., with its vastly superior air, naval and missile forces, would swiftly prevail.

But if Iran called into play Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, and sectarian allies inside the Arab states, U.S. casualties would mount and the Middle East could descend into the kind of civil-sectarian war we have seen in Syria these last six years.

Any shooting war in the Persian Gulf could see insurance rates for tankers soar, a constriction of oil exports, and surging prices, plunging us into a worldwide recession for which one man would be held responsible: Donald Trump.
How good would that be for the GOP or President Trump in 2020?

And when the shooting stopped, would there be installed in Iran a liberal democracy, or would it be as it was in Hosni Mubarak's Egypt, with first the religious zealots taking power, and then the men with guns.

If we start a war with Iran, on top of the five in which we are engaged still, then the party that offers to extricate us will be listened to, as Trump was listened to, when he promised to extricate us from the forever wars of the Middle East.


Pat Buchanan
Patrick J .Buchanan

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of the new book “Nixon's White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.”

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    Robert Hartwig
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    Robert Hartwig

    OK, I agree, no war with Iran. Of Course, we do nothing until they Nuke our electrical grid with an EMP. It would only take one, maybe two to do the job. Then we can try to fight them with our mighty nonworking military weapons!! Trump was handed a bad hand and even worse treaty by Obama. Our only alternative is to starve them into submission but that won’t work because of our Friends France and Germany want to continue selling them the tech they need to end Western Civilization into oblivion. I vote we turn that whole neighborhood into… Read more »

    Bud
    Guest
    Bud

    We should not give even one american life in a war with Iran. Use every economic or political weapon available. That being said, if they engage us directly with their military then bomb them into the dust. No quarter given.

    terrible2
    Guest
    terrible2

    Hey Guys listen to the REAL news and you might understand that the CIA and NSA and Mossad have infiltrated Iran and have begun a campaign for regime change from with-in the Country. If it goes as planned there will be a Civil War and then Democratic Republic installed to the liking of the Saudi’s which will put an end to the funding of the Palestinian problem and the ousting of Hamas. Keep watching

    GaryGary
    Guest
    GaryGary

    War with Iran ? Lets see, the last war America won was in 1945 when Japan surrendered. Since then Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afganistan, were all disasters for the mighty American military. Afganistan and Iraq have cost the USA $6 TRILLION and counting with zero net gain ! Not to mention the terrible body count ! If China, Japan, and the EU need Middle East oil let them secure the supply routes. America has reached oil independence so we do NOT need to get involved in another Middle East war !

    FB
    Guest
    FB

    The US is not the only country that will go to war with Iran. They would get pummeled.

    HankB
    Guest
    HankB

    Iran is terribly vulnerable to US air – if we were to use it effectively. And Iran knows it. Previous administrations probably would have left their electrical grid, nuke facilities, oil production & storage depots, water & waste infrastructure, ports, dams, bridges, rail facilities, airports, docks, and government buildings intact. I doubt Trump would be so kind to a terrorist-funding enemy stupid enough to start a shooting war with us.

    White Rose
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    White Rose

    My brothers, your arguments are changing the issue raised in the article and that does not alter the merit of the analysis. Your arguments might as well be directed at the adversaries in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, etc. None of them are at war with the US in the classical manner as suggested in your arguments about Iran would dare engage a war with the US. Well, we have been living in an undeclared state of war on many fronts for the past 17 years at a cost of trillions of dollars; hundreds of thousands of lives lost and displaced; a… Read more »

    Raymond Levy
    Guest
    Raymond Levy

    We should of blew them up and annihilated their country a long time ago , look at all the shit that they have caused us over all of the years….. # nuke the bastards……..

    P Hall
    Guest
    P Hall

    We did much worse. We toppled their democratically elected govt and installed the Shah.

    tomcat
    Guest
    tomcat

    We are going to reimpose sanctions on them at midnight and that may cause a reaction from within. The subjects in Iran are not happy with the towel headed, bearded leaders anyway. They just keep trying to cause trouble all over the mid east but are not brave enough to step up and do their own fighting. Maybe they will implode and Pat can rest easily.

    Colonialgirl
    Guest
    Colonialgirl

    Old patty boy Forgets the millions of dollars obama handed over to Iran ; apparently he is too stupid to realize that Iran is funding and supporting all the terrorist groups around the world and leading the attack on Israel. Perhaps he should stick to trying to sell health insurance or whatever in his TV commercials and keep his ignorant trap SHUT about other issues.

    VT Patriot
    Guest
    VT Patriot

    I’m disappointed with Mr. PJB’s conclusions. If we were to follow O’b s lead, we’d be sending more planeloads of CASH to Iran with a bow wrapped around it. Shame on Trump for not following obozo’s plan. Iran lives on it’s oil production and shipping it all over the world, plus the inclusion of billions of US $$ to save its butt.
    Lets go back to obozo’s way, and then we can sit down with them, have tea, and figure out how much more they could use to support the mullahs. Always worked in the past, didn’t it?

    E. Bryan Hoover
    Guest
    E. Bryan Hoover

    The leaders of Iran are not stupid enough to start a war with the US.

    We have a secretary of defense who would fight a war with only one outcome – the leaders of Iran would lose there hold on power – and everyone, and I mean everyone, would understand that the US won, and the leaders of Iran lost.

    The leaders of Iran are not stupid enough to start a war with the US. They will avoid a war at any cost.

    Robert J. Pante
    Guest
    Robert J. Pante

    Obama would avoid war and surrender.

    Darkman
    Guest
    Darkman

    Useless question. There won’t be a Trump war with Iran. Mr.Buchanan is trying to sell another book based on Hyperbole. Anyone who hasn’t figured out the Trump strategy of dealing with problems is either blinded by ideology,disingenuous in their analysis,or looking to make a buck. These so called experts are nothing more than talking heads who at the end of the day accomplish nothing more than add to the background noise coming out of D.C.