GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA – -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates October 2018 firearm sales at 1,046,087 units, a year-over-year decline of 11.9% from October 2017.
This is the lowest October number since October 2011. Likely single handgun sales (508,416) fell year-over-year by 11.5% and single long-gun sales (461,826) fell year-over-year by 12.9%.
All other likely firearms sales (75,845) decreased year-over- year by 8.6%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks likely to be unrelated to end-user firearms sales. The FBI’s raw numbers (for October, some 2, 033,276) cannot be taken at face-value as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. For example, in October the state of Kentucky conducted about 394,000 so-called permit checks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to just under 18,200 checks.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “the sum total of likely U.S. firearms sales for the first ten months of 2018 is about 10.8 million units, below the 11.4 million units for the same time period in 2017 and substantially below the high point of 12.9 millions units sold in the first ten months of 2016.”
ABOUT Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting:
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)
Note to Editors: Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting’s Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer is available for interviews. Contact: [email protected] Additional charts and images are available on request.