Gallup and the 2020 Presidential Election

Opinion

President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump

USA – -(AmmoLand.com)- Gallup has analyzed the mood of the American people and come up with warnings for both President Trump and his Democratic rivals.

As Paul Bedard reported in The Washington Examiner, newly released Gallup material found the number of Americans who believe that President Donald Trump “has the personality and leadership qualities to be president” has increased over the last two years. The President has also eclipsed his predecessor in terms of working on issues Americans believe to be important.

According to the article:

Gallup found that 47% agree with Trump on the issues, edging Obama at the two year mark of his presidency. In April 2007, 45% agreed with Obama on issues, said Gallup.

“And Trump was graded more in line with the political ideology of Americans than Obama and former President George W. Bush. Asked about Trump’s ideology, 38% said it was “about right.” Some 35% said the same thing about Obama, and 36% for Bush.”

These are remarkable numbers. They violate the Washington elites’ view of Trump as an unacceptable outsider. If almost half the country agrees with Trump on issues – and more:

Americans think he is more in line with their ideology than either President Barack Obama or President George W. Bush, maybe it is the Washington elites who have to do some serious rethinking.

The improving prospects for President Trump’s re-election were also captured in a New York Times column by Steven Rattner, who was Obama’s counselor to the Treasury and leader of the auto bailout program.

Rattner – who is hardly a Trump fan – wrote that three separate projection models currently point to Trump’s re-election.

“Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College,” Rattner wrote.

Before the White House breaks out the champagne, it should note the one warning in the Gallup report. As Paul Bedard noted, “Gallup found that 58% disagree that Trump has the character aspects of leadership and personality to be president.”

President Trump’s acceptability as someone with the personal characteristics to be president has improved from 33% two years ago to 40% today. With another year of improvement this may cease to be an issue.

Faced with the strengths of the economy and of President Trump on the issues, the Democrats have two likely paths in 2020.

If they nominate someone like Joe Biden, who tries to stay closer to the middle than the left-wing of his party, they run the risk of an election like the one in which former Vice President Walter Mondale was crushed in 1984. A mild personality that does not stir up passion is fine – until there is a storm. Then, support melts away. Mondale discovered this when he promised to raise taxes. Biden will almost certainly have to endorse some radical positions to hold his party together if he becomes the nominee. Those will then define him since his mildness will have failed to imprint a strong definition.

The more likely future is that Democrats will nominate a non-Biden candidate, who is dedicated to stirring up the Left by adopting radical positions. In that case, he or she will resemble George McGovern who was crushed when the country perceived he was too left-wing to be president.

Republicans trying to recapture the House of Representatives and working to increase the Senate GOP majority should study Bedard’s and Rattner’s analyses and start planning for an election in which they have a strong tailwind for the GOP ticket. The Democrats will either bore the country or scare it.

Your Friend,
Newt


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Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich

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Newt Gingrich is well-known as the architect of the “Contract with America” that led the Republican Party to victory in 1994 by capturing the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in forty years. After he was elected Speaker, he disrupted the status quo by moving power out of Washington and back to the American people.

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X-Ring
X-Ring
1 year ago

Most people aren’t taking into account what a ZOO the Democratic convention in Milwaukee next summer is going to be. Antifa will be there, Black Lives Matter will be there, as will Code Pink, all of the illegal immigrant groups, and every other ragtag Left radical group you can think of. And how do these goofball get attention? By demonstrations and rioting. And Milwaukee is going into next year with an understaffed police department, understaffed fire department and understaffed sheriffs department because Milwaukee’s idiot mayor and idiot county executive would rather play politics and build a streetcar system (which nobody… Read more »

John D.
John D.
1 year ago

Trump is the glue that presently keeps us from another civil war. However, the clock is ticking, and in one or five years hence there will be war. We, as a nation, are too torn to continue for a long period without judgement. We are as the nation states in the Old Testament that God judged. We have become the “Whore of Babylon”; promoting all manner of sin on a global scale. When the president of the United Sates (Obama) warns the world on national tv that sanctions await any nation that does not recognize the abomination of homosexuality, then… Read more »

joefoam
joefoam
1 year ago

Imagine what the numbers would be if an actual cross section of America were asked. And even in a skewed poll, imagine what the numbers might be if the MSM weren’t constantly on the attack.

Marvin Beaver
Marvin Beaver
1 year ago

WE The PEOPLE must be vigilant in the upcoming election cycle to ensure a fair a just VOTE. WE The People need to take back the Voice given to us by the Constitution, and not listen to the Voice of Socialism spewed by the MSM and the left. WE the People are responsible for the corruption in Congress and WE The People must FIX it. Politicians will not set their own term limits so we must do it form them. Members who have abused their power and position must be voted out. We must encourage our neighbors to do the… Read more »

jean-marc evrard
jean-marc evrard
1 year ago

Trump’s numbers would be better if had actually protected the 2nd amendment like he promised instead of mocking the lefts fear of the NRA and gun owners, and then illegally infringing on our rights.

Maxpowers
Maxpowers
1 year ago

Be prepared for anything the hate, intolerant left may try to do.

When election season comes around they will try anything such as censoring conservative voices in some manure attempt to stop “hate speech”, Violent racist hate groups like antifa may attempt attack peaceful protests, rallies and possibly attempt voter intimidation and prevent people from voting all the while the police do nothing under orders. The media will double down as we’ll.

Keith Christy
Keith Christy
1 year ago
Reply to  Maxpowers

well said, but should the election really be held in 2020 or should our pres. be given his 2 years that were taken from him while the lefties were screwing with his office & not allowing him to focus on the tasks at hand ,(OUR COUNTRY)I would say ,return his time !!