GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA – -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates August 2019 U.S. firearms sales at 1,160,547 units, a year-over-year increase of 15.8% from August 2018.
Likely single handgun sales (632,415) increased year-over-year by 19.5% while single long-gun sales (430,838) increased year over-year by 7.7%. All other likely background check-related sales (97,294) increased year-over-year by 33.3%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for August, some 2,341,363) cannot be taken at face value, as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in August the state of Kentucky conducted over 315,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 21,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “after sluggish winter, spring, and early summer sales, August sales jumped up to a considerable extent. Year-to-date sales still are running about 200,000 units below those of 2018 (8.6 million vs 8.8 million). As the industry enters its crucial fall and year-end holiday season, unit sales will rise but whether last year’s totals will be exceeded remains to be seen, of course.”
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Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)