U.S. Firearms Sales: Year-Over-Year Sales Rise Substantially In August 2019

Approximate United States Firearms Sales (January 1999 to August 2019).
Approximate United States Firearms Sales (January 1999 to August 2019).

GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA – -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates August 2019 U.S. firearms sales at 1,160,547 units, a year-over-year increase of 15.8% from August 2018.

Likely single handgun sales (632,415) increased year-over-year by 19.5% while single long-gun sales (430,838) increased year over-year by 7.7%. All other likely background check-related sales (97,294) increased year-over-year by 33.3%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.

SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for August, some 2,341,363) cannot be taken at face value, as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in August the state of Kentucky conducted over 315,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 21,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sales.

SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “after sluggish winter, spring, and early summer sales, August sales jumped up to a considerable extent. Year-to-date sales still are running about 200,000 units below those of 2018 (8.6 million vs 8.8 million). As the industry enters its crucial fall and year-end holiday season, unit sales will rise but whether last year’s totals will be exceeded remains to be seen, of course.”

ABOUT Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting:

Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSmall Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)

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If you thought the buying spree was big after the latest talk of gun control, wait til you see what the remarks made by O’Rourke has on buying. Americans love their guns, and the notion that the candidate purports, that people will simply turn them in without force is simply ludicrous.


“Hell, yes, I’ll be buying Ar parts this week!”

Get Out

No need for a crystal ball to know that O’Rourke’ “Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47!” will be driving up gun sales too, especially the AR-15 and AK-47s.


I don’t own an AR or an AK and I don’t care for them, but I support the 2nd Amendment if you want them you should not be told by anyone that you can’t buy them, I’m old school as I have classic old school weapons in my collection!!!!!!

jack mac

I too prefer other firearms over 15s and 47, but I bought one just to hack off those not wanting people to have them. When I want to I will buy another because I don’t possess two. I do not want any law against it.

Autsin Miller III

mac, that’s funny. I did the same thing. Don’t know that I will ever even shoot it but I’m with ya, if it irritates the left I’m gonna do it.

jack mac

More firearms in circulation the better.


Yeah, I think the latest debate may boost September sales.


Questions: 1) Up until 2008 long guns accounted for peak sales. Then in 2009 handguns started having seasonal peaks often just past the long gun peak. More than hunting season at play?
2) Up until 2015 long guns peaked higher and outsold handguns. After that it switched and now handguns account for more sales and higher peaks. Why?
3) If semi-auto rifles are the first step, how long before mandatory “buy-backs” are demanded for the more prevalent handguns – especially since it’s handguns that are more frequently used?

jack mac

One Of the first steps was the taxing of machine guns to unaffordable to most, and arbitrary firearm length in 1934. Anyone who wants to disarm others is not concern of the personal safety of others. These anti-American rights people are fully aware that all firearms are the same in that they can be used by private people.

uncle dudley

I would be interested in having the numbers of how many sales were turned down and how many were prosecuted with the turn down numbers.
Also how many people were delayed from purchasing at time of nics check.


That is a very good question, but do you think the government will follow up on this as they do nothing about illegals coming in with records????????

jack mac

It would be good to know the numbers denied and delayed. Nobody should be prosecuted on laws that should not exist.