Facts and Perspective on the Pandemic of 2020

One third of coronavirus deaths in green, one third in yellow, and one third in red

U.S.A. –-(Ammoland.com)- We think our models of the world are more real than the world itself. That is understandable since we can play with our simple models, while the real world is awash in complexity. We ignore what we don’t understand. We shut down civilization because a model of the coronavirus said we were in danger. The facts matter, but we need more than facts and figures and the lastest models to feel safe again.

Are we at risk from Covid-19? Putting facts in perspective lets us see the relative size and distance of our concerns. We can compare the virus to other infections, to other risks we face, and compare the risks in our state versus other states. The first thing to notice is that we are not all the same.

Diversity

We’ve long been told that diversity is our strength. That is true in the case of this pandemic because we can see that a few states contain almost all the deaths from Covid-19. Even that statement hides how concentrated the fatalities really are. New York state has the most covid deaths. Even then, it is really New York City rather than upstate New York. Within the city, there are a few nursing homes that provided long-term care where the disease killed significant numbers. We see the unusual death toll in New York City because New York government demanded that patients discharged from the hospital with Covid-19 had to go to state-supported nursing homes to recover from the virus. Covid patients were sent to live with elderly people living in nursing homes even though the new patients were still contagious and shedding the virus. Other states did not do that, and that difference saved tens-of-thousands of lives across the country.

Before we can evaluate the danger of Covid-19, we have to ask if we will deliberately put old people into a dangerous setting. Decisions like that make over a 50-fold difference in the results. That isn’t a model, that is observation.

Best and worst states for Covid 19

Covid-19 is now projected to kill about a hundred-and-thirty thousand people in the US this year. That sounds like a disaster, and it is about one-fifteenth of all the people we expect to die in the US this year from all causes. To put that projection into perspective, 130 thousand lives are about twice the number of people who died from the flu over the winter of 2017-2018. It is certainly worth our attention, but not the end of the world anymore than the flu was the end of the world two years ago.

We’ve seen diseases like Covid-19 before. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was also a coronavirus. We developed a vaccine for SARS over a decade ago, but SARS disappeared before the vaccine could begin clinical trials. We are again seeing similar behavior from Covid-19.

Covid-19 trends in the USA

One well-established theory says about 60 to 70 percent of us have to be immune to the flu before the disease dies out. One problem with that theory is that most of us haven’t had Covid-19, and yet we’re seeing a sudden drop in new cases. Now that we’re six weeks past the peak, have we suddenly become that much more diligent at washing our hands?

We observe that about 17 percent of us may have been exposed to the virus, and yet it is dying out as if we already reached herd immunity. Those are the results from antibody tests taken across the country. One untested theory is that many of us, if not most of us, have a natural immunity to Covid-19. Our immune system, particularly our T-cells, remember similar coronaviruses even if we don’t have the antibodies for this years virus. That is only a theory, but epidemiologists are struggling to explain what is protecting many of us from getting the virus as the rate of new Covid-19 infections falls so fast. You might not have heard about that epidemiological puzzle because good news doesn’t sell newspapers.

Here in the USA, it looks like Covid-19 will kill about 4-people-in-ten-thousand. Some places have been worse and some have been much better. No matter where we live, we want to take care of those who are at an elevated risk, but there are greater dangers out there.

Whether you find that comforting or troubling is up to you.


About Rob MorseSlow Facts

The original article with references is here. Rob Morse writes about gun rights at Ammoland, at Clash Daily, and on his SlowFacts blog. He hosts the Self Defense Gun Stories Podcast and co-hosts the Polite Society Podcast. Rob was an NRA pistol instructor and combat handgun competitor.

 

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3l120
3l120
1 month ago

How come no-one is dying from the seasonal flu this year? Only the China virus. We have been hearing that 60K deaths occur annually from the flu, but none this year.

Oldvet
Oldvet
1 month ago
Reply to  3l120

@3…Haven’t you been paying attention every one who has died this year had the china virus . One outfit claimed George Floyd died from the china virus !

rotten-ron
rotten-ron
1 month ago

Interesting how most “rules” are put in place for the sake of our children and now for the “old and vulnerable”!! I fall in the last category and no one asked me if the world should shut down. Unless the virus was killing 1/3 to 1/2 the population, I would not have shut down the world!! Any “old and vulnerable’s” agree with me?

joefoam
joefoam
1 month ago

After looking at the map you have to ask why the entire country is on the same lockdown orders.

Jeffersonian
1 month ago

Let’s not forget the death numbers are being artificially inflated. People getting shot in drug-gang disputes are being listed as having died of the virus.

DaveW
DaveW
1 month ago

Seems to be a LOT like Global Warming and Climate Change. The former head of the National Weather Service stated that there is no way models are good enough to detect Gore’s favorite fear mongering. Add that this past week came the threat of a large magnetic zone stretching from South America to Africa is destabilizing and scientists don’t know why.

Another crisis for the Democrats to take advantage of.

It’s about time people switched on their common sense and logic.

JPM
JPM
1 month ago
Reply to  DaveW

Worse than the virus could ever have been.

Chuck
Chuck
1 month ago

Even the statistics shown here, are higher than the actual numbers by anywhere from 15% to 50% due to mistakes in reporting actual Cause of Death. The CDC’s guidelines for reporting allowed falsification of COD’s, and States that inflated numbers to get more Federal Relief funds was rampant in NYC. When it’s all done and over with, I strongly suspect the actual death toll will mirror the average Influenza death toll.

Ryben Flynn
Ryben Flynn
1 month ago

Stay at home orders made it worse as now there was no chance for herd immunity. No shutdown over the 2017-2018 flu and while there were tens of millions of cases, there were only 79,400 deaths. Unfortunately my Wife of 46 years was one of those casualties. CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2017–2018 season was also high with an estimated 48.8 million people getting sick with influenza, 22.7 million people going to a health care provider, 959,000 hospitalizations, and 79,400 deaths from influenza. So now with the CV-19 and no immunity there are 1,837,625 cases and… Read more »

gregs
gregs
1 month ago

the world’s greatest economy was shut down for this? I personally do not know a single person that got the virus. this was mishandled from the beginning, in china. not one of their predictions, models were even close to being correct. this is why I do not trust the talking heads on the idiot box. God gave you a brain, use it.

TNJEWBOY
1 month ago

The action is in the reaction.
You have a horrible event.
Then the elite rams legislation through Congress which strips the freedom and liberty from the CITIZENS of These United States.

That’s a pretty neat trick.
Create a problem then offer a solution which puts more power into your hands.

Green Mtn. Boy
Green Mtn. Boy
1 month ago

Minneapolis should make for a great proving ground for the veracity of the various states sponsored tyranny aka Chi Comm COVID 19 lockdowns,because social distancing and masks in many cases went right out the window with the riots.

If in Minneapolis there are increased COVID 19 cases so be it, if not then it’s proof the people in many states have been lied to,like that’s never happened before.