New Jersey – -(AmmoLand.com)- Two years ago I was a moderately anti-gun liberal living in one of the bluest states in the country, going on my first trip to the range with a friend to rent and shoot. Last year I became a liberal first-time gun owner, and this year I’m starting to fight against my party in New Jersey to gain access to my constitutional right to carry a firearm.
So what exactly happened?
Well, a worldwide pandemic causing a spike in crime around my home sure has a way of changing one’s perspective. As the police got stretched thin and for the grocery stores went bare I observed the following in the past year:
- A murder occurred at a motel within a mile of my home.
- Robberies at retail locations were up stretching the local police thinner than they already were.
- Various shopping centers we regularly frequented now had people aggressively accosting others for money, and getting threatening when refused. This happened to me.
- My neighbors found a homeless encampment in the small patch of woods behind our homes. The cops cleared the camp but didn’t catch the people living there. It would have been trivial for anyone living there to get through our back fence and attempt to break-in.
- Two people were held at gunpoint at an ATM at the bank I use around the corner from my house.
You might think that I live in a particularly dangerous area of the state, but I actually live in what Money Magazine called one of the best places to live in the US in 2020.
If you look at the overall stats my town doesn’t seem particularly unsafe, but the pandemic has seen crime go up everywhere. The lesson I learned from this is that you never know when you might be in a situation to defend your life – no matter where you live.
One thing you’ll notice is that a variety of the events listed present a danger outside of my home, where I would want to be carrying my firearm in order to protect myself and my family.
New Jersey is technically a may-issue state for concealed carry permits, but in reality, is a de-facto “no issue” state.
If you are not already politically connected or have enough money and the knowledge of who to donate to, “personal protection” is not a “good reason” to carry a handgun where I live. This is a right people who live as little as 20 minutes away in Pennsylvania are guaranteed if they pass a background check (PA is a “shall-issue” state).
What makes my situation infuriating is that I’m told by anti-gun activists and politicians in my state that the de-facto ban on concealed carry is there to “keep you safe”. This is a demonstrable lie.
I’ve changed political opinions on various issues in dramatic ways over the course of my life, and the surest way for that to happen is for me to catch “my side” lying or acting hypocritically. When it came to gun issues, I found that the data does not support the gun control laws being proposed. There is no issue where this is clearer than when it comes to concealed carry laws.
The Data
Since the 1980s, the overwhelming majority of states have loosened up their gun laws over time, going from “may-issue” states that can subjectively deny an applicant for any reason, or no-issue states to either permitless carry or “shall-issue” where anyone who passes a background check and/or some proficiency testing must be issued a concealed carry permit.
Because this has happened over such a long period of time, we have a lot of data we can look at to see if the opening up of concealed carry laws has had any effect on making states more or less safe.
The answer is unequivocal NO! Loosening up of concealed carry laws has no discernable impact on a state’s homicide rate.
Let’s look at an example to show how we arrive at this conclusion:
Florida was one of the first states to allow concealed carry, becoming “shall-issue” in 1987. In 1987 the murder rate in Florida was 11.4, in 2019 (the latest year we have data for from the FBI), it was 5.2.
Does this mean that looser concealed carry laws caused the murder rate to drop? No, but it does mean that looser concealed carry laws didn’t cause the murder rate to increase.
Murder rates, like almost all violent crime rates, have dropped dramatically over the last 30 years. If we take an exhaustive look at the data we will find that there is no correlation between loose concealed carry laws and a state’s murder rate.
Here is the spreadsheet showing murder rates from 1999 to 2019, the data most readily available from the FBI’s website (2019 is the latest year they have published as of this writing).
There are a few key pieces of data we can observe for the latest year we have on record (2019):
The state with the lowest murder rate in the country (Maine, 1.5) has permitless carry, whereas the state with the highest murder rate (Louisiana, 11.7) is a shall-issue state.
If we look at the 10 states with the lowest murder rates we will find:
- 5 of them have permitless carry (ME, VT, SD, ID, WY)
- 4 were “shall issue” (IA, MN, UT, NE)
- 1 is “may-issue” where it’s a de facto ban on concealed carry (MA).
If we look at the 10 states with the highest murder rates we will find:
- 4 have permitless carry (MS, AK, MO, AR)
- 5 were “shall issue” (LA, SC, NM, TN, OK)
- 1 is “may-issue” where it’s a de facto ban on concealed carry (MD).
This alone should be enough to show there is no correlation between carry laws and safety. We have roughly the same distribution of carry laws in our safest and most dangerous states, if anything the safer states are slightly more permissive than the more dangerous ones, not less.
Population and Density
At this point gun control advocates might try to argue that population and density are important factors that aren’t captured by this data, meaning more populous or more densely populated areas have reasons to enact stricter gun control and effectively ban concealed carry.
This is false, the data proves otherwise:
Louisiana had the highest murder rate per capita in the country at 11.7. It is a shall-issue state, it has 4.6 million people and a population density of 107.5 people per square mile of landmass.
Wisconsin is a shall-issue state, it has 5.8 million people and a population density of 107.6, but it had a murder rate of only 3.0.
This should be enough to show that things like carry laws, population, and density don’t really have a causal relationship with a state’s murder rate, but I want to make things more explicit about how restrictive carry laws don’t make a state any safer.
New Jersey can be hard to compare to other states because it is the most densely populated state in the nation with 1,207 people per square mile and a population of 8.9 million. We have a de-facto ban on concealed carry as a “may issue” state and a murder rate of 2.9.
However, we can see that a state with a roughly similar population like Washington with 7.7 million people has a lower murder rate than we do at only 2.5; however, WA is a “shall issue” state.
But what about population density? We can compare NJ to the next most densely populated state Rhode Island which has a population density of 1,022 people per square mile, but it also had a lower murder rate than we do at only 2.4. Rhode Island actually has permitless carry, which they passed in February 2017 when the murder rate dropped down to 1.9.
The Truth About Concealed Carry and Murder Rates
The plain fact of the matter is that there is no correlation between how permissive a state is with concealed carry vs. that state’s murder rate.
The most apples-to-apples comparison we can make in the data is to look at what the murder rates look like in states that loosened them up to allow concealed carry.
If you look at these last 20 years, in every state that went less restrictive on concealed carry we can see that after loosening up the laws they’ve had some years with lower murder rates than when they had more restrictive carry laws. Those same states have had instances where the murder rate went up some years after loosening up. There simply is no correlation, and if there is no correlation then the law doesn’t actually have an effect on the relevant statistics.
The conclusion is clear: Concealed carry restrictions do not make us safer. All it does is prevent honest citizens from being able to defend themselves and their families in public.
“Why Don’t You Just Move” and the Chances of Reform
With so many states allowing concealed carry, not to mention not requiring overly burdensome regulations to purchase a firearm, why not just leave the state? There are two reasons why I don’t want to move.
- This is my home! My family moved here when I was only 11 years old. I grew up here, went to college here, and have established a 20-year long career here. More importantly, this is where my friends and family all live; I can get to my job within 10 minutes, my friends are even closer. My kids love their school which does a great job educating them.
- Carrying is my constitutional right! The Constitution says that the right to bear arms shall not be infringed. If you look up the definition of what it means “to bear” it means “to carry”, even back in the days the constitution was written. Hopefully in the next few months, we will find out if the Supreme Court will finally adjudicate the split decisions at the federal court level as to how this right is to be interpreted.
Gun control isn’t the only hot-button issue where the dominant political party in a state doesn’t like a constitutionally guaranteed right. In red states, they don’t like the fact that women have the right to have an abortion (a right I wholly support), and so they continually enact restrictions and mandatory regulations so as to make it as hard as they can to get an abortion.
Should we tell the women in those states to “just move” if they want abortions? No, we challenge those laws in court in order to peacefully overturn unconstitutional violations of our rights, which is what happens most of the time with such laws.
Currently, the Supreme Court is considering whether or not to grant cert to NYSRPA v Corlett, which would finally settle the matter once and for all. With the new composition of the SCOTUS, us gun owners are hoping that they will finally start taking second amendment cases again and overturn these unconstitutional violations of our rights.
I hope that if the court does take that case and rules in our favor, that at least this article will show that we have nothing to fear from ordinary citizens being able to concealed carry.
How the Gun Control Lobby Lies To You
All the data I’m presenting here is publicly available from the FBI’s website (ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/), I just couldn’t find it collated in a way that showcases state by state over time, overlaid as to what each state’s concealed carry laws were at that time. I also want to cover what I’m presenting and why so as to contrast that with the intentionally distorted numbers gun control advocates like to present.
What I’m presenting is each state’s homicide rate per capita: ie. how many people were murdered per 100,000 people that state has in their population. This actually is less favorable to my position because not all homicides involve a gun. However, homicide rates are more consistently presented and collected by the FBI over time whereas homicides that involve a firearm are noted by the FBI as being necessarily incomplete for a few states.
Still, if a change in the concealed carry laws caused an increase in murders, it would necessarily be reflected with an increase in a state’s homicide rate.
If you contrast this with the sort of data presented by gun control advocates you’ll often find states listed by “gun deaths” which lumps suicides with murders so as to inflate the numbers per state. This is because gun suicides make up roughly two-thirds of all “gun deaths” in the country, whereas gun homicides are roughly the last third.
The problem with this is that the question “does allowing concealed carry make us more or less safe?” is not answered by looking at suicides. The fear is that having more people carrying a concealed gun in public will result in more murders.
I’m no less safe if it turns out that people committing suicide in a state tend to use more guns to do it, and the ability to concealed carry isn’t going to cause someone to commit suicide.
What suicide numbers does do is muddy the waters when comparing states and policies. New Jersey for instance has a very low suicide rate in general (not just gun suicides), but it has a comparatively higher murder rate; by mixing the data sets the gun control lobby can make NJ look safer than it actually is.
The question you should ask yourself is why advocacy groups present distorted data, and what does that tell you.
~ John Lopilato, New Jersey.
“My kids love their school which does a great job educating them.” That’s what I thought about my children’s school until one blurted out that “the only thing wrong with socialism is it has never been implemented correctly.” Only then, and too late, did I realize all public schools, most private schools, and most all colleges and universities are mere cesspools of intolerant left wing indoctrination. If your children are still young, talk to them about what they are learning, i.e. go beyond helping with homework and making sure it is done. When you learn of indoctrination, show your displeasure… Read more »
Government school
Oh so you think schools should be teaching hate?? You teach your kids hate?
As long as you and your fellow New Jerseyans keep voting Democrat, nothing is going to change.
As long as they continue practicing self-delusion nothing will change. Start with language. Can the Orwellian Newspeak. Not Liberal. Progressive. More clearly New Left Progressive. Alinsky is their God.
Nice work with the statistcs and using them to establish that “gun lws” have llittle direct correlation with murders and other violent crimes against persons. BUT I am still VERY disturbed about your own “context”. Seems you were fine with the disarmed status of your fellow Jerseyites. Fine. UNTIL you began to realise the noose of the progressive rot was beginning to tighten.. the ATM round the corner, the store YOU frequent… at THAT POINT your philosophical acceptance of the gun laws made you realise they put YOU in danger. Good awakening. So NOW that YOUR own skin is in… Read more »
Tionico…
Nowhere in NJ has ever been a “best place to live”. Better keep your liberal a$$ there.
You described yourself as moderately anti-gun and indicated you have decided to remain in NJ. That was a good decision.
Exactly what I thought. Stay there until you start voting conservative or libertarian.
I doubt that will happen, but I would be interested to know John Lopilato’s thoguhts on: Progressive tax structure (that is even more punitive than a flat rate structure) The size and scope of government Exemptions for government employees (with respect to laws imposed on non-goverment employees) Unequal enforcement of laws Forced redistricution of wealth (in its many forms) by government The cause of the huge discrepancy in crime rates between neighborhoods Low arrest rates, low conviction rates, light sentences, and paroles for violent criminals Appropriate sentence for illegally entering a residence Birthright citizenship Taxpayer provided benefits for people living… Read more »
https://www.educate-yourself.org/cn/communistmanifestortenplanks12sep06.shtml
The similarities in agendas are extensive and go well beyond the planks (as I realize you know).
HELLO from an escapee.
NJ is a democrat ruined, broke and busted state. Numbers don’t lie.
Corrupt to the core. Illegal and criminal infested cities spread their crime cancer daily. Governor Moron is U-Haul’s # 1 salesmen. Most everyone has an exit plan, even the rats but then they come to a successful less tax-o-ratted state and vote rat again. DUH !! . But if you live on democrat handouts stolen from taxpaying citizens, THEN NJ is for you.
I love it RFD#99, I use that description frequently as I escaped from Connecticut. Free states are GOOD !
Well, first of all, welcome to the fight. In my opinion, the answer to your question is demonstrated in one of the graphics in this article. Don’t be a “2A But” person. The fight isn’t really for conceal carry or even the right to own a firearm. The fight is to get the leaders of our country to recognize and respect what our forefather’s acknowledged and knew, which is that every person has inalienable rights! As inconvenient as some people find that, it remains true through time and history. What can you do? The same as the rest of us,… Read more »
Care to cite where in the Constitution it says it is a Right to murder babies? Yea, I didn’t think so. Read our founding documents; we have the Right to LIFE, Liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
You’re a nimby, you didn’t care about Civil Rights until there was a threat literally in Your backyard. If you voted Dimmokrat for any office, at anytime, for any reason, you are no friend of mine and certainly Not my ally. You are delusional, but thanks for playing.
Dubi stop!! There’s a lot of ish that’s not in our Constitution that’s still a law in this country. But I get, you support rapist, traffickers, molesters, con, crooks, and clowns. My mom use to tell me not all of us are good, some are just too Right! Sounds like you Trump much.
First of all you are not a ‘liberal’ nor are your fellow inmates in the progressive utopia of New Jersey. You are a progressive. You reject the fundamental premises of our founding which are Liberal. Free markets, restricted government funtioning at the lowest level possible, free association, spontaneous order theory, public choice theory. No, you are a progressive. The only reason you try to hijack the term ‘liberal’ is because that fraud has worked since FDR to mask the progressive social Darwinism of the Democrat Party from unsuspecting voters. Stop the fraud. if you want someone to take you seriously… Read more »
Thanks nrringlee, I often refrence”1984″ as a warning for those born before that year and a directive for those born after.
To us it was science/ social fiction to the younger generations it is a book of directions to utopia.
What about the rest of the manifesto? ….to me, a ‘few events’ should never have had to “change” your view. It seems to me, ppl either get it; or they don’t… As I often say, being a Democrat is not a political status; it’s a disorder… That’s not being ugly… Think about that… Look at the other points of the manifesto…what else may you have thought was ‘good and normal’? Maybe you thought open borders were a good idea? Or women in all male combat units? Or other methods of all inclusion.. Or giving the government the power to do… Read more »
You still come off as a whining, liberal, East coaster. I suggest you grow a spine and move out of that shithole State of NJ. “But, But, But” you say. If you really cared about your children you would move but that would cramp your style, wouldn’t it? I really don’t care especially since you still identify yourself as someone who has no problem murdering children in the womb for any reason. Get back to me when you have that, “Road to Damascus moment.”
To whoever gave me a down vote on my comment and to anyone else who sees fit to do so know that I will wear it/them with pride.
RoyD they are badges of honor for me. It shows that my beliefs are deeply instill and my “fight” must continue.
No kidding! Keep your vote in NJ!
No stay there. He’ll never change and will only ruin anywhere he goes.
At the rate this country is going politically, economically and socially, there are no safe places from the gun grabbing leftos, experiencing a sudden gush success at ruining America. As for states with relative freedom; economic, 2A, no state income tax, low or no estate tax, etc., Florida, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Utah, Texas, eg., the idea now is to keep out the rats from the Dem states who vote blue because it’s a congenital disease.
Just remember ALL arms laws are unconstitutional and Butters and Fudds are cancer.
A more powerful proof point can be found in Texas, where every year they publish a report of crimes committed by LTC holders vs the general public. The former consistently commit fewer crimes of all types than the general public.
even lower than the police, if I recall rightly. Certainly fewer killed by armed citizens than by police carelessness or tyranny.
I applaud your awakening, but being a liberal in a socialist state is like being the shiny turd in the pile.Your perspective would change if you would spend a few days in a free state – maybe start somewhere west of Harrisburg. THEN you would appreciate the ridiculously restrictive NJ rules.You need permission to even shop for a gun, you need to bribe beg a judge to allow you to have a permit, and you need a second mortgage to pay for it. Even cops need permission to carry off duty. These days, and in this forum, being a little… Read more »
I’d rather be tried by twelve then carried by six. I’d carry, screw them. I don’t ask permission to excercise my rights since I was 20. I’ve carried in MANY places that you aren’t “supposed to”. I guess that makes me a bad guy. Except…no one ever died.
If it’s in New Jersey, it can’t have been “one of the best places to live.” It is how the state and cities are run, not the few nice places to visit, and that has always been as bad as New York! I lived in both Newark and NYC, and compared to the midwest those places are sh*tholes, to quote a friend. LOL.
Why do things have to happen in the world that surrounds certain people, before those people make any real effort to figure things out? With all appreciation of the steps forward that the author has made, and those yet to be taken, there is no knowledge here that was not available to him from at least teenage years and onward. Think, people!
In Der People’s Demokratik Republik of New Jerseystan, your right to self defense is at the whim of the government. I moved from Californistan over forty years ago, the writer is making miserable excuses for staying in that police state.
what has you confused is you still believe an inanimate object can be bad. the problem is the people,instead of teaching learn to get along and try to learn something from each other ,they are bad their ansestors did this to you and take what is yours. There are things that have been done to people by others (comifornia took beach front land from black family) that should be fixed,100 years late is better than never. as for mass. remember Lexington and concord?? government attempt to take powder and shot ,the guns are about defense of freedom mass is so… Read more »
Meanwhile, antifa sets fire to an ICE building in Portland today – with officers locked inside. Cops do nothing.
https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2021/04/11/watch-antifa-sets-portland-ice-building-on-fire-with-officers-trapped-inside/
Will I help a libtard fight for his 2A rights?? A better question would be: will a libtard take up arms and kill fellow libtards?
Friend or foe?
In or out?
Black or white?
#NoMiddleGround
Just because:
Oklahoma governor vows to fight ‘federal overreach’ of gun control efforts – AR15.COM
It would be great if Shannon Smith came out and said somethting similar.
https://www.oklahomasheriffs.org/
Maybe even something more specific, like each and every Oklahoma sheriff has pledged not to cooperate with any federal authorities to enforce any new federal gun control laws.
Maybe Louis Flowers could get together with Shannon Smith and they could issue a joint statement.
https://okchiefs.org/oacp-executive-board
Good post. Except any idea that your rights exist because of some ink on some paper are WRONG.
Rhode Island DOES NOT have permitless carry! It has a hybrid shall issue/ may issue law.
R.I. is VERY anti-gun.
RI isn’t very anti gun. The people RUNNING RI are very anti gun. Rhode Island is a FICTION for all intents. IT is the PEOPLE who are in charge who are the nit wits.
Yes, nothing like actually experiencing “life” to make you a believer in our 2A rights. Welcome aboard. I do however challenge your assumption that women have a “constitutional right” to abortion. Actually it’s a violation of the constitutions Right to Life clause. You can’t pick and choose which parts you like, it’s our constitution. You either uphold and live by it, or you don’t. But, baby steps in our direction. Good for you.
As a one-time Democrat who walked away several years ago, this line resonates: “I’ve changed political opinions on various issues in dramatic ways over the course of my life, and the surest way for that to happen is for me to catch “my side” lying or acting hypocritically.”
I too was a Democrat and changed. I was a member of the military in the late 1970’s. Along with all military under President Carter’s abuse I wanted better. I was a “REGAN DEMOCRAT” and eventually a Republican. John if I ever thought killing unborn children was acceptable; then I know a sixteen year old high school junior who had a baby in 1955 (ME!). Would that sixteen year old keep ME alive in 2021? John stay in NJ and fight with your neighbors for a fair 2A. Truth in history is a fact that when Government is the only… Read more »
Right here with you. Came around on the gun issue mid 2017/early 2018. Our state laws are a joke with regard to firearms and their carry.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is under attack by Black Looters Matter, blaming the poeleese for shooting a black thug that likely endangered officers by driving away from a traffic stop. Patriots in Minnesota – you need to arm yourselves and go protect your community from these heathens. Just shoot their f’n azz. The cops are neutered, so don’t count on them to do anything that might be construed as anti-black. However, they (the cops) will gladly come after you, so consider them (the cops) complicitous in all this reckless endangerment and unlawful behavior. Just shoot their f’n azz as well. Let’s get… Read more »
Once they closed down City Gardens, there was no reason to live in New Jersey anymore.
I am glad that you have come around to a constitutional way of thinking on this issue. I do find it curious that you can rectify your beliefs that a person has an inalienable right to self defense and the protection of their life, and yet you can support abortion. I’m glad your here, and you are obviously an open minded person who can engage in conversation and ultimately had your mind changed. Welcome to the fight, we are glad to have another voice!
Bottom line these folks have not ‘come around’ in their thinking. Progressives of all stripes are confused because their philosophical premises are confused. That is why they can be pro life (theirs) and pro death (black babies) in one breath. They have forsaken critical thinking for critical theory. Confusion reigns supreme. Just look at their handiwork. New Jersey. California. Portland. Seattle. Chicago. Baltimore. Millions of dead black children. And they call it progress.
John, thanks for honestly sharing your thoughts, experiences, and research. I can appreciate your difficulties. Your struggles with rights and safety can be instructional to any of us with open minds.
There is no “struggle with rights and safety”. The average bear will never be more safe than when excercising his right to carry a Delta Elite on his hip and a short barrelled M16 slung over his shoulder.
You should be applauded for standing on your foundation regardless of what others have opposed against it. Fight! And fight some more to make change happen. We Americans. Yes we can!!
Peronally I admire your willingness to admit you were wrong on an issue & your desire to stand & fight where you are rather than abandoning those in your district who want the ability to exercise their right to own & bear firearms & have the ability to defend themselves & others. This country was not founded by people who ran somewhere else when things didn’t go the way they wanted – they fought to keep the right to live their lives the way they chose while respecting the rights of others to do the same. This spirit of disrespecting… Read more »
The foundation the country was built on included no gun control and an extremely small government.
Infringing on other’s firearm rights and voting to have the government take the fruit of their labor is not allowing people to live their lives – it is exactly the opposite.
I will continue to disrespect the views of people who describe themselves as moderately anti-gun, just as I will continue to disrepect the views of people who advocate for a large, intrusive, costly government and forced wealth redistribution.
Very well stated.
The foundation of this country was built on hate and deceit. Infringing on other’s rights and not allowing them for hundred of years to be able to take advantage of having free will and a right to take care of their families. Limiting individuals to not even having basic human rights. And I’ll continue to disrespect the system that took advantage of countless minority people for over 400 years because of hate and deceit. And I’ll disrespect the individuals who doesn’t believe all individuals from the beginning of this great nation should have had every single right at the time… Read more »
What can you say? We be bad!
Dee, the foundation of this country was not built on hate and deceit! We didn’t just become the USA. There were a few settlements that were owned by the Virginia company. Actually, king James 1 of England granted a charter in 1606 to the Virginia company of London to colonize the American coast between parallels 34 and 41 north and another to the Plymouth company to settle between 38 and 45 north. In 1607 the Virginia company crossed the ocean and established Jamestown. In 1619 a ship arrived at Jamestown with Africans that had been captured from the Spanish. These… Read more »
Why has Dee been missing in action? Where he be?
terryc, nice try to “reach across the aisle” the way I read the article the author stated some facts and showed an awareness of the encroachment of danger but will never the less chose to be a victim. He worked out a spreadsheet to visualize what is happening before his own eyes, a true leftist approach, but will never do anything about it but write long articles expressing his worry. An anti-gunner will always be anti. I know a nice young lady who (was brought up in an outdoors family, hunting and fishing) that luckily went to a prestigeous university… Read more »
Well said my friend. Well said!!