The Misleading Murderer You Know Lie, a Look at the Data

U.S.A.-(AmmoLand.com)- Those who follow the debate on restoring Second Amendment rights have probably heard the other side proclaim some variant of:

“Most victims are murdered by people they know.”

The implication is defending yourself from a murderer is futile because there is no point in trying to defend yourself from a person who is close to you. This is a way of lying with statistics. The truth is far different.

Few Victims Are Murdered By Someone They Live With.

In 2013, this correspondent published an essay on the Misleading Murderer that you Know. The numbers were from 2010. This article uses numbers from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) for 2019.

The most accurate crime statistics involve homicides, particularly murders. The most easily solved homicides are murders of passion between intimates. The hardest homicides to solve are those with no connection between the murderer and the victim.

The largest category of victims in the FBI reports of victim relationships to their murderer is unknown. In 2019, those victims are 49% of the total. It is a huge number. Some of this is because FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) are often filed before an investigation is complete. As murders of passion among intimates are the easiest to solve, this means a much higher percentage of strangers and acquaintances fall into the unknown category when the UCR report is filled out.

The clearance rate for murder in 2019 was 59%. This means 41% were not solved. About 84% of the murderers who are unknown by the time of the UCR report remain unknown. Likely, most of the 16% solved are not intimate partner murders. Those that are are unlikely to have been living with their victim.

The clearance rate for murder in 2020 dropped to 54.4%.

So-Called Known Murderers

The next largest category of murderers is acquaintances. It is 20%. These are included in people you “know”.

The slightest connection to you counts as you “knowing” them. The gang-banger who was in your remedial English class in community college, the drug dealer you filed a report about, the laborer who cleaned up your neighbor’s yard, the person who involved you in a fender-bender, the high school classmate who was always in trouble, are all counted as an acquaintance. So are addicts’ suppliers, criminals’ associates, and gang members.

The next largest category is members of the immediate family. They are 11%. This is who most people place in the category of “known.”  This includes estranged and ex-family, such as ex-wives and ex-husbands.

Then come strangers, at 10%. These are the hardest murderers to catch.

  • Boyfriend/girlfriend is at 5%. This includes ex-boyfriends/girlfriends.
  • Other family is 2%.
  • Friends are at 2%.
  • Neighbors are 1%

Employers/employees are just a trace, at .16%, too small to show up on the chart.

Acquaintances Aren’t Family

To create the misleading statistic that most murderers are “known” to their victims, those who want you to believe self-defense is futile include acquaintance with family, friends, and neighbors.

Then to inflate the “known” numbers, they assume the unknown murderers have the same percentage of immediate family and relationships as those where the relationship is known. It is a bad assumption.

Applying the misleading math used by Gun Control Advocates to the 2019 figures creates the false figure that 80% of murderers are “known” to their victims.

A more realistic appraisal is unknown, stranger and acquaintance categories make up 79% of murderers. Of the remaining 21%, many are ex-spouses, ex-boyfriends/girlfriends, and estranged family and friends.

The numbers of exes and estranged are not reported. A great many domestic homicides occur between ex-spouses, ex-boyfriends/girlfriends, and estranged others.

When determined, it is likely that the number of people who murder someone living with them will be less than 10% of the total.

More and more people are effectively defending themselves against people they know who have become deadly enemies.

Knowing someone doesn’t mean you cannot defend against them. Legal measures such as restraining orders make a self-defense claim clearer to police, prosecutors, and courts. This correspondent refers to these as cases of domestic defense.

Taking a quick look, 20 cases of domestic defense were reported by the media in the last three months. The vast majority involved firearms as a defensive tool, where the attackers were wounded or killed. Most defensive uses likely do not result in shots fired or in people wounded or killed. Most are not reported to the police, and of those reported, few are mentioned in the media. Actual domestic defense uses of guns are probably 50-100 times greater than those reported in the media.

Self-defense against intimates is almost never counted as justified homicide in the FBI UCR, because of the extremely limited definition of justified homicide the UCR uses.

The bottom line: Firearms are effectively used for self-defense when confronting known and unknown attackers. Don’t fall for the anti’s propaganda war hide the truth.


About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30-year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.Dean Weingarten

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Montana454Casull

Lie , distort , cheat the Democrat way . It’s the only thing liberals know how to do . The truth does not fit in thier false narratives anywhere . They lie about data , they lie about facts that don’t support narratives . They lied about covid, they lie about gender . See a pattern here ?

swmft

lied about afganastan…still are ,they would not know a fact if it hit them on the head

gregs

leftists gonna do what leftists do, distort the truth, data or facts. seems like the party of science doesn’t believe in data.

musicman44mag

Lesson learned. When obummer was president, they changed the rules regarding how they count the people that were refused access to our country and retuned to mexico so obummers numbers would look better than past presidents. Typical demonkkkrat move. Change the rules, change the laws so the numbers shift in their favor to produce the results they want. Pick and choose the dates that they get their data from so it favors what they want and what I really love is that they always seem to use colleges to do their analytical work as if people learning and being trained… Read more »

musicman44mag

I gave you an upvote. Did you vote on mine?

There are many parts to the machine. I am concerned that the VAX is part of it because the government is pushing it and enforcing it without a decree from king obiden. Unlike obiden and his cronies that showed getting the shot of saline solution on tv, the combination of the shot that the peasants received and the next virus may be the combination that kills us and it was all worked out before hand.

musicman44mag

That’s crazy, I hope it’s just a bunch of hype but with our government now, you never know. If my president is willing to lie to me on tv and say I never said that after being proven that footage exists that he did and then continue saying that he never said that, I don’t need anymore proof than that to know that my government has gone to hell.

Thanks for sharing. Scary shit.

J Gibbons

If a future zombie apocalypse is real, I suspect the vax may be a contributing factor. As more real data leaks out about side effects across all age groups, this looks more and more like a mass human experiment than anything designed to protect against an illness.

swmft

it is a gene therapy experiment, what the target is I have no Idea. The fact that it killed and created heart problems in white males, I would like to know if any other group has this . I also know of a family that lost 12 fully vaxed boosted members and none of unvaxed including drug addicts got sick he is a black fencing contractor turned 80 this tear still going strong, the people in his family that didnot get it all will not get any government anything, they had family that were in the syphilis experiment….so they have… Read more »

musicman44mag

I haven’t caught covid or they cant find anything that says I ever did though I think I did in DEC of 2019 before anyone knew anything about it except for Fauci and his buddies like Gates and Woohan. No shot here.

willyd

Got two, J&J no more

musicman44mag

I agree.

Tionico

This injection business is NOT an experiment. mRNA injections were well known as failures from a number of tries in the past. What makes this one different? Big gummit and bidniss money behind it, and a faux crisis to create panic, thus driving the iggerunt masses to the “magickal solution” (final solution?) to “protect us from a mean seasonal flu virus Add in WEF/Billy the Gates Georgie Boy, Schultz, etc, and we have what we have, after plenty of help by a complicit media.
Planned? Convince me otherwise with cold hard FACTS. Don’t have none? S’watteye thot.

Finnky

I don’t think they are trying to convince you that self defense is futile against those you know. I think they are trying to convince people that a firearm in the home increases your risk, as others in your home might gain access and use it upon you. Simpler and more effective solution is to exercise judgement as to whom you allow in your home. As Dean suggests, “those you know” offer the best opportunities for self defense. You have had opportunity to determine which present a threat and which do not. Highest threat is from crazy exes, and they… Read more »

Boom

I think they’re trying to breed mistrust in the ppl in your life/neighbors/strangers…

swmft

divide and conquer, give up your guns fit in dont be odd one out …all bs to gain control. this rights are variable and flexible is just ways to take them away

musicman44mag

Dean!!!! Is there an extra AT in the title?

musicman44mag

Ok, thanks. I needed to make sure my dyslexia wasn’t acting up this morning. Take care.

Ope

Music, that was a really good catch that had sure got past me.

BobS

Suppose gangbanger Skippy, a prominent leader in the Chartreuse gang, is moving in on the Magenta gang’s turf. It’s likely Magenta gangbanger Biff will recognize Skippy and his Chartreuse pals when they drive by Magenta’s HQ to deliver a few presents.

That scenario is tallied as the victim knowing the assailant.

swmft

they do count gang hits as known , even though the shooter does not know or associate with the people he is shooting. kind of like only counting friendly fire deaths in a war. what oh so none of the others were killed ?