Gun-Shy Dems: Keep Hating the Second, Keep Losing the Country

By JP Pichardo

Over the past couple of months, Democrats and Republicans have been locked in a mid-decade redistricting war that began when President Trump called on the Texas Legislature to preserve the U.S. House Republican majority. Texas passed a congressional map that eliminated five Democratic-held districts in favor of ones the President would have won. California, meanwhile, passed a new map that eliminates five Republican seats—with voters approving Proposition 50, the ballot initiative to abolish the state’s independent redistricting commission. Now, New York, Illinois, and Virginia are also considering mid-decade redistricting, yet Republicans remain favored to prevail if Democrats continue to be unpopular.

Mid-decade redistricting is not uncommon, but it is certainly not the norm. Blue states have largely already gerrymandered their maps to maximum advantage, whereas red states have played fair up until now. This is great for blue states because they can silence a significant number of their residents to get away with their anti-gun agenda. Virginia and New York could take some seats from Republicans if voters approve abolishing their independent commissions, but Democrats are still fighting a losing battle. Worse for Democrats, Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson recently announced that the Senate will not pursue a mid-decade redistricting attempt. And in Virginia, voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment to the Virginia Constitution to create an independent redistricting commission in 2020 by over 65%, yet now Democrats are attempting to repeal that—a law that Democrats wanted in the first place. With Democrats sweeping the Virginia executive and legislative branch elections in November, their plan to repeal the independent commission is now officially in motion.

It is an open secret that Republicans will gain electoral votes along with Congressional districts in key states like Florida and Texas. Nationwide migration patterns show that Florida, Texas, and Utah are growing the fastest, while California, New York, and Illinois are losing residents. If every state dropped their redistricting attempts, Democrats might win back the House next year—yet Republicans would return even stronger after the 2030 census.

Democrats, however, have made their biggest blunder since Republicans lost the 2018 midterms in a little-covered Supreme Court case: Louisiana v. Callais. This case centers on whether Louisiana’s second Black-majority congressional district is unconstitutional under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. That was a fatal misstep.

The current Supreme Court has been described as hostile to the Voting Rights Act; all but Section 2 have already been found unconstitutional. Because the case was brought on constitutional grounds, it went straight to federal court. If Section 2 is deemed unconstitutional, the GOP could pick up at least 19 seats by dismantling such districts—and these are not even part of the current redistricting fight.

I recently wrote an opinion piece citing a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing the GOP winning the argument on gun control. The Republican stance—letting Americans arm themselves—resonates deeply with the public. For Democrats to remain relevant in the next decade, indeed for their survival, they must start fighting for gun rights once again.

The good news for Republicans? Democrats are doing nothing about it. If Democrats were oblivious to their platform woes before, President Trump’s blockbuster return to the White House punched them in the gut. His historic comeback was powered by a broad coalition of Americans disenfranchised with the Democratic Party—for millions, gun rights were at the center of their vote. The gun rights movement has evolved dramatically in just the last decade and continues to shift. However, it is not tethered to one party: Republicans hold these voters because they pass pro-gun legislation here and there, but if Democrats advocate for gun rights, many gun-owning voters could shift away from the GOP because they align on guns but diverge on other issues.

The United States is undergoing a massive political realignment. If Republicans want to retain the pro-gun vote, they will have to decide if they’re willing to back their rhetoric with pro-gun action—by passing pro-gun bills and repealing existing gun control.

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About JP Pichardo

JP Pichardo is a federal lobbyist for Gun Owners of America who specializes in Congressional procedure. He previously interned for Congressman Paul Gosar and The Heritage Foundation’s Government Relations Department and can be found on X at @JPPichardo1776.