The National Instant Background Check System Checks (NICS) recorded the sixth-highest gun sales on record in December 2024.
Last month, this Correspondent predicted on AmmoLand that December sales would be about 1.6 million. Gun sales for 2024 would be about 14.6 million. From the previous article:
 “This correspondent expects a drop in gun sales in 2024, to a bit less than what was recorded in 2022, to about 1.6 million sales.”
Estimated gun sales for December 2024 were 1.62 million.
“This correspondent’s prediction is 2024 will have had 14.6 million guns recorded as sold by NICS.”
Estimated gun sales for all of 2024 were 14.68 million.
The gun sales for December 2024 were the seventh highest on record. The total gun sales for 2024, as estimated from recorded NICS sales, are the eighth highest since NICS started records in 1998.Â
December is most commonly the strongest month for gun sales through the NICS system. Gun sales dropped off in December, most likely because of the election of former and future president Donald Trump. Donald Trump has always campaigned as friendly to and protective of the Second Amendment. Major campaign supporter of Donald Trump, Elon Musk, transformed the media landscape by purchasing X, formerly Twitter. Musk has been a strong and vocal supporter of the Second Amendment. Donald Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments made all the difference in restoring the Second Amendment to the same level of recognition as the First Amendment. That fight continues with a few states defiant of the Supreme Court and the Constitution.
People considering purchasing firearms no longer needed to fear the political attacks of the Biden administration, the Democratic party, and the “old, dominant media.” The “old dominate media” showed it was no longer the dominant or mainstream purveyor of news, able to gatekeep information and create the narrative it desired for the nation. Without the fear of the Democratic party, or the fear-mongering of the “old dominant media”, the urgency of firearm purchases has receded.
Some market segments may be saturated. When Barack Obama was elected, the estimated number of “modern firearms ” (1899-2008) privately owned in the United States of America was 308 million. In the last 16 years, another 208 million have been added to the private stock.Â
Constant dollar prices for practical and effective firearms, have decreased by roughly 75% in the last 120 years. Quality ammunition prices have dropped by about 90% or more in constant dollars. Anyone who can legally own a gun in 90% of American states can own one gun and a hundred rounds of ammunition for a week’s work at a minimum-wage job. In a few states and cities, the right to own a firearm is still limited by legislation. Those unconstitutional statutes are being challenged in court.Â
The states in defiance include the high population states of California, Illinois, and New York. When court cases prevent those states from unconstitutionally infringing on Second Amendment rights, expect a significant increase gun sales, to meet the pent up demand.
December of 2024 was the 65th consecutive month where gun sales, as estimated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, totaled over one million a month.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
That’s 300-million in just 25 years, making my point that it’s over 1-billion in the past 100-150 years. Whoever estimates guns owned in the U.S. at only 300-400-million is seriously low balling it.
Dean, one thing we are noting up here in NW Arizona is a significant slow down in sales at both gun shows and at brick and mortar FFL’s. Talking to folks at the gun shows tells me and my group of collectors that people just do not have a lot of walking around money and that is impacting sales big time. C &R Collectors are in a little different game but still, prices have slipped and sales have dropped. Folks are very particular. Popular composite gun sales are in the basement. Collectibles still sell but not for the money they… Read more »
We need to go back to when you could order a gun from Sears and Roebuck without the 4473 form and no government tracking of gun purchases . The good old days when the government understood “shall not be infringed”and honored its meaning .
I wonder? If NICS checks help determine gun sales, if measure 114 becomes effective in Oregoneistan and you have to get a background check in order to get a permit to buy a gun and then get another check when you buy the gun if it would effect the amount of total predicted gun sales or if they are going to make a separate category for that? 516 million guns seems low to me. I checked 4 different web sites and it ranges from 350 mil to 550 mil so they don’t really know. I don’t think they can include… Read more »