The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) for February 2025 shows a drop in both Firearm sales and overall background checks. Firearm sales are down about nine percent from 2024. NICS background checks are down about five percent from February 2024. Handgun and “multiple” sales moved up a bit from January to February while long gun and “other” sales dropped a bit. In the graphic below, the lines are for 2024. The bars are for 2025.
President Trump has been in his second term in office for over a month. The rapid pace of corrections produced by the Trump administration signals a strong turn away from the destructive and radical policies of the Biden administration. During the first Trump term, firearms sales dropped a bit, largely because prospective gun buyers believed President Trump was not nearly as hostile to the Second Amendment as Hillary Clinton would have been. In President Trump’s Second term, the contrast is even greater.
According to the NSSF adjusted figures based on the FBI NICS numbers, this month was another month in which over 1 million firearms were sold. February 2025 is the 67th consecutive month in which over 1 million firearms were sold.
Firearm sales generally slump a bit in January after the Christmas sales in December. While February is three days shorter than January or December (except for leap years), February sales track higher than January, on average. In February, NICS checks were higher than those in January in 20 of the 26 years recorded in NICS.
Significant change tends to disrupt existing systems and markets. It takes time for them to readjust. The significant reforms desired by President Trump and called for during his campaign will create some disruption and pain as they are implemented. It is best to implement the changes at the start of an administration so the pain will be felt earlier and the beneficial effects can start to be observed before the next election. President Trump and his cabinet are working to move members of the workforce from unproductive jobs in the Federal government to productive jobs in the private sector.
During the last 16 years, about 210 million firearms have been added to the stock of private firearms in the United States. Firearms are very durable goods. With modest care, they can last for hundreds of years. Improvements in ammunition and firearms metallurgy have added to the potential useful life of firearms.
Smokeless powder makes the maintenance of firearm bores easier, as has the transition from corrosive primers to non-corrosive primers. Those improvements occurred around about 1900 and 1950 as rough markers. Since the 1960s, stainless steel has taken an increasing portion of the firearms market. Surface treatments that are tougher and more protective than blueing or controlled rusting, such as cerakoting, more durable plating technologies, parkerizing and black nitride are likely to increase longevity. Composite stocks tend to be stronger than wood stocks per pound. It is not as clear composite stocks will last longer, but it seems plausible.
Longer lives for firearms would be expected to dampen demand. To counter that trend, firearms are cheaper, on a constant dollar basis, than ever before.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
Sheesh, I skip one lousy month… I just bought my March gun, (but it’s C&R so no NICS and no statistics for them).
I would think that the stupid people feel safer now that Trump is president but with all the muslims causing trouble at colleges and in the streets in addition to the burning down of Tesla dealerships, I would think twice about how safe we are. If anything, I would have already bought a gun with BLM and Antifaggots BS and if I didn’t I would be getting one now in preparation for the war that the left seems to be stoking the fire on. BUT, I have it all together starting from years ago including food, water, bullets and anything… Read more »
bet with trump as potus people feel crime will go down , and police will come to help when called, some of that will happen but in states where the jackasses are in charge will not get better until feds step in
I do not like adding to NICs statistics , I prefer private sales that keeps the data collectors out of my business .
In the grand scheme of 2A, the NSSF report is a bit useless. It’s more important to have new owners of guns, not repeat buyers. Why? Because you want a large net of thinner rope vs small net of thicker rope. 2A needs more people to have guns. 1,000 people having 10 guns each is not as good as 10,000 people having 1 gun each. Why? Because guns themselves do nothing, each gun needs to be in the hands of someone.
I’d be curious to know if ammo sales have increased, instead. Maybe people are slowing down acquisition of guns and instead taking out what they’d been buying for the last few years and actually using them for a change?
After all, what good’s a tool if you don’t know how to use it?