Without Coordination, Money and Boots on the Ground, Virginia Will Be Lost to the Gun Prohibitionists

Here’s a Plan on What’s Needed to Win.

“The polling that’s been conducted in recent months … shows [Virginia Democrat gubernatorial candidate] Abigail] Spanberger leading [Republican candidate Winsome] Earle-Sears within the margin of error,” NBC News reported Friday. “Additionally, Spanberger has maintained a robust advantage on the airwaves. She outspent Earle-Sears on ads almost 2 to 1 from Jan 1. through Labor Day, according to AdImpact, and has outspent her by even more over the last two weeks.”

While the focus on that story was to shill for Spanberger’s record on “transgender people’s participation in youth sports and use of school locker rooms and public bathrooms,” the polling and spending issues also should be of paramount interest to Virginia gun owners—and by extension, all gun owners and the Second Amendment groups they belong to. Because if Spanberger and Democrats dominate in the upcoming election, “gun control” that’s been successfully restrained by outgoing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s administration will be back with a vengeance, this time with a governor eager to sign into law every infringement that makes it to her desk. Conversely,  Earle-Sears will serve as a veto bulwark against Democrat attempts to erode recognition of the right to keep and bear arms.

The first major test of the mood of the electorate will be Virginia’s November 4 general and special elections. Per NRA “Reform” Board member Dennis Fusaro, there is a grave danger of giving Democrats control over the offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general unless gun owners—and the groups they support—become more effective about doing those things needed to win elections, including providing the funding, manpower, and direction needed to turn out the vote.

This is something that no gun owner can just trust that others will work on; it requires their personal involvement. And motivating that is not something the “gun rights groups” will succeed in achieving unless they put the necessary monetary and manpower resources into doing what it will take to win.

“Forecasting models indicate a 76% chance that anti-gun interests could dominate the chamber without robust voter engagement,” Fusaro advised the NRA Foundation in a grant request on behalf of Rights Watch International. “As a 501(c)(3) organization, we must remain strictly nonpartisan, focusing on educating and mobilizing approximately 80,000 pro-gun voters identified as ‘may vote’ in 2025—those who participate in presidential elections (e.g., 2020, 2024) but skip off-year elections (e.g., 2021, 2023).”

That’s half of the equation. Fusaro has also crafted a (501(c)(4)-compliant strategic approach:

“As a 501(c)(4) organization, we can engage in issue advocacy and limited political activities to promote social welfare, including supporting pro-gun candidates, provided these are not our primary purpose. Our strategy targets 62,000 pro-gun ‘may vote’ voters who participate in presidential elections but skip off-year elections, using issue-based advocacy and mobilization to counter anti-gun groups’ $2.25 million investment ($1.5 million DNC, $750,000 DLCC). This program can be easily expanded to reach additional pro-gun voters statewide, potentially up to 70,000, amplifying our impact across all competitive districts and beyond through scalable outreach methods like direct mail, texting, and community-based voter engagement events.”

“Our two-pronged, IRS-compliant strategy combines statewide voter education with intensive targeted outreach statewide and in 15 competitive districts, using direct mail, texting, live calls, and innovative re-engagement programs like ‘knock and drag’ to boost turnout and equip voters to make informed decisions on Second Amendment issues,” Fusaro elaborated, noting that early voting starts on September 19. “The program is urgently needed … to encourage greater participation by a group of pro-gun and hunting voters who often fail to participate in Virginia’s odd-year state-level elections.”

That’s the key—motivating these, or failing to, will determine the shape of Virginia gun laws. And what happens in Virginia will set the tone for the midterms.

Fusaro’s plan identifies competitive districts identified as “key battlegrounds based on current forecasts,” and further characterizes each district as “Must Flip,” Must Win,” and “Must Defend,” with further prognosis assessments. That’s followed with strategic goals to counter heavily funded Democrat tactics and messaging by  “identifying and engaging presidential-year pro-gun voters,” providing voter education, and conducting outreach programs (direct mail, texting, live calls, providing rides to the polls).

“This is about cultural defense and making sure our grassroots people have a say in the public policy process in Virginia by exercising the right to vote,” Fusaro maintains. “To do that they need to be informed about the issues and the means of voting in Virginia.”

“The target universe are voters who are pro-gun and hunters who have a record of voting in Presidential and Midterm even-year elections in Virginia but who then ‘drop-off’ or ‘drop-out’ in Virginia’s unique odd-year elections for Governor and House of Delegates,” he explains. “It is a known list of at least 80,000 voters.  Just for reference, Governor Youngkin won in 2021 by only 63,000 votes.”

Getting the needed votes this year is doable, but it’s going to take more than the NRA mailing out orange cards and some articles, social media posts, and “gun tuber” videos, although those will also help. In terms of bodies, the NRA has plenty of reps in other states not holding immediate elections and where the legislative climate means they’re not overwhelmed fighting immediate threats. Why not fly them out to Virginia for this campaign and put them to work organizing and recruiting volunteer gun owners in the key districts to provide needed manpower? Why not partner with Virginia Citizens Defense League to get not just “boots on the ground,” but effective action teams that know the terrain and the politicians vying for it?

“Virginia is in the eye of the storm!  Virginia is the leading edge of next year’s Midterm US Congressional and Senate Elections,” Fusaro predicts.

He’s not wrong. If Virginia gun owners fail to elect Second Amendment advocate Winsome Sears (who would “check all the right boxes” for Democrats if she were only an anti-gun collectivist), they’re in for a world of legislative hurt and more protracted legal fights they could have avoided if they’d simply claimed their right (and duty) to vote. As for other less-than-stellar Republican candidates (like the ever-equivocating Jason Miyares), where the greater object is to vote against prohibitionist Democrats, consider that the GOP would not still be offering such disappointments if gun owners consistently made their demands known at the polls.

Fusaro has offered a detailed plan, and good one. It’s up to NRA and VCDL to share what plans they have developed to see how their detailed strategies compare, and to accept and implement a coordinated formula for success to maximize informed gun voter turnout.

Because they’re out of time. If you’re a member of either group, tell them that.

Spanberger’s Attacks on 2nd Amendment Should Galvanize Gun Owners to Unite Against Her

Kinzinger Shows More Ignorance on Second Amendment in Lame ‘Gotcha’ Attempt

About David Codrea:

David Codrea is the winner of multiple journalist awards for investigating/defending the RKBA and a long-time gun owner rights advocate who defiantly challenges the folly of citizen disarmament. He blogs at “The War on Guns: Notes from the Resistance,” is a regularly featured contributor to Firearms News, and posts on Twitter: @dcodrea and Facebook.