NICS Data Shows Steady Firearm Sales in October 2025, Nearly Unchanged from Last Year

The adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers from the FBI show almost no change for firearms sales and for background checks, comparing October 2025 with October 2024.

There has been a slight decrease in adjusted firearms sales, from 1.303 million to 1.299 million, a difference of about 0.3% of sales. The total NICS background checks fell from 2.298 million to 2.289 million, about a 0.4% decrease in background checks. There have only been four Octobers in the last 26 years with numbers higher than those in 2024 and 2025.

During the 26-year record of NICS numbers, all Octobers except October 2021 show a higher number of NICS background checks than they do for September of the same year. October is well into hunting season for many states. 2021 was the second-highest year for gun sales on record. The record year for gun sales in October was in 2020, the presidential election year.

Only the presidential year of (Trump) 2016 shows more gun sales in the United States than occurred in any of the four years of the Biden administration and the presidential election year of 2020. Firearm sales are a reasonable indicator of the level of discontent in the electorate.

The assassination of Charlie Kirk reminded many Americans of how fragile and dangerous our domestic political situation has become. There have been other periods in our history where danger lurked at least as much.

Such was the situation during the colonial period, before the United States gained independence. Such existed during the Revolutionary War. Such existed on the frontier with continuing war and raids from Indian tribes up until 1900. During the same period, Texans experienced the worst as they fought for and gained independence from a Mexican government that had become tyrannical. Then, during the fratricidal war between the states, which brought death tolls to all the States and significant destruction to about half.

Since 1900, war at home has only been experienced in Hawaii, Alaska, and California. There was a significant attempt by the Left to instigate an insurrection in the late 1960s and 1970s, but it was ultimately unsuccessful.

9/11 rekindled a sense of vulnerability that has not departed. It was a sort of renewal of the Barbary Wars against Muslims who view others as legitimate prey. It continues today.

The off-year election victories in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey by the radical Left will keep the sense of vulnerability and fragility alive.

Only when a decisive victory is won, such as the left losing the next midterm elections and the next Presidential election, will we be poised to enter another golden age, similar to the one we had in the 1950s. The potential exists in accelerating new technologies. They could give the productivity boost required. It can happen.

The downside is that the demand for defensive weapons decreases in a golden age. The bonus is that the demand for recreation increases.

The number of modern firearms in private hands continues to rise in the United States on a month-by-month basis. We arrived at about 533 million firearms in the private stock at the end of May 2025. In the five months since that date, we have added approximately five million, bringing the total to 538 million. Of the 538 million, over 240 million have been added during the last 20 years.

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About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.