In February of 2026, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data, compiled by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, shows that gun sales are up 3.5% while background checks are down 13.5% compared to February 2025. From NSSF:
The February 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,265,320 is an increase of 3.5 percent compared to the February 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,222,980. For comparison, the unadjusted February 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,933,972 reflects a 13.5 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,236,637 in February 2025.
Looking at the NICS figures from the FBI, by Month, Year, and by State and Type, the February 2026 totals for permits and permit rechecks were 378,921 and 291,731, with the total background check numbers at 1,933,972. In February of 2025, the permit and permit recheck numbers were 360,126 and 655,531. The total number of background checks was 2,236,637.
The drop in permit rechecks from February 2025 to February 2026 was around 345,000. The total drop in background checks from February 2025 to February 2026 was roughly 302,000. The drop in permits and permit rechecks accounted for more than the total drop in background checks.
At the Crime Prevention Research Center, a slight drop in concealed carry permits has been occurring. This was attributed to the increase in Constitutional Carry (permitless carry), which is now up to 29 states. Such a drop could explain the decline in the number of background checks for firearms permits and permit rechecks. Permit and permit recheck volumes have fluctuated, complicating the correlation between NICS background checks and firearm sales. They are the major reason the NSSF adjusted NICS is a much better measure of firearm sales. The adjusted numbers exclude NICS background checks conducted for permits and permit rechecks.
Looking at the 27-year history of NSSF Adjusted NICS, a reasonable proxy for firearm sales conducted through the NICS system, firearm sales are close to what they have been in February since 2012, with 2013 and 2016 as spikes and 2019 as a substantial drop. Those years correspond to the year after the re-election of President Barack Obama and the election year for the first term of President Donald Trump.
The drop in sales in 2019 is correlated with a positive economy in the third year of the first Trump administration. The NICS background check numbers, even the NSSF-adjusted numbers, have not been adjusted for population growth. The population of the United States has grown by about 22% since 2000. Gun sales have increased considerably more than the population has grown, roughly 108%. If you look hard, you may see an upward climb in gun sales in 2009, the year after the Heller decision at the Supreme Court officially recognized the Second Amendment as a fundamental enumerated right in the Bill of Rights.
The reasons for the 3.5% increase in gun sales in February 2026 compared to February 2025 are not clear or obvious. The economy has improved. President Trump has acted decisively in foreign affairs, even though the war with Iran was relatively quiet at the end of February. Perhaps Americans have a bit more money and a bit more stability than in February of 2025. It is possible that people on the far left are seeing the advantages of the Second Amendment and are purchasing firearms.
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About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
