By Sam Culper
United States -(AmmoLand.com)- Situation Report (SITREP) for 2200L 24 JAN 2016
– Local reports indicate a possible decrease in federal vehicles in the vicinity (IVO) Burns, OR, which may be due to a recent FBI shift change. Sources also reported a decrease in the number of law enforcement vehicles in the area.
– There’s been no change in the FBI’s posture IVO Burns, OR.
– Pacific Patriots Network leadership were introduced to two new FBI agents who are replacing the previous two FBI contacts. The new FBI agents desired continued communications with the PPN, and wanted the PPN to continue to communicate with Ammon Bundy. Each party also reiterated a desire for a peaceful resolution.
– Lavoy Finicum renewed his commitment to the Malheur cause, denying rumors that the group was attempting to negotiate their way out of the Refuge. “All of those of you who are worried that we are about to negotiate a withdrawal with the FBI, that is not the case. We are not going anywhere. We are here to do a job,” he recently told reporters.
– There are two unconfirmed reports of overt FBI surveillance of the Malheur compound over the weekend. An occupier in the watch tower overlooking the Refuge Headquarters reported an aircraft making runs over the area. The other unconfirmed report is that a Malheur guard approached a vehicle with two FBI agents who left after a short conversation. No further information is available.
– A community meeting in Burns was scheduled for Monday, 25 January; however, it was cancelled by Harney County Judge Steven Grasty, citing “security concerns.” In a news release, Judge Grasty was concerned over a protest against the “public meeting” in which seating was limited and personal identification would be checked before entering.
ANALYST COMMENT: A shift change would explain a quick increase and decrease in personnel, however, it does not account for the additional equipment and gear trailers brought in over the past week. Although the FBI is being measured in their response, they likely maintain the capability to secure the Refuge, if necessary. Additionally, we can probably expect a similar shift change within the next two weeks.
We expect tactical teams to remain on standby in the event they’re needed in Burns or at the Refuge, however, they do not appear to be any more likely to cordon the Refuge as they were in the past 48 hours.
Time is clearly on the side of law enforcement. We continue to see a calm and calculated presence as the FBI is likely building a criminal case against Ammon Bundy and the Malher crew. A continued willingness to have dialogue with the Pacific Patriots Network remains a positive indicator that a peaceful resolution is desired.
MLCOA: As long as FBI capabilities remain at current levels and we don’t see any indicators of armored vehicles or restricted airspace, then the Most Likely Course of Action is a continuation of what we’ve observed over the past two weeks as the FBI continues to give enough rope to the Malheur occupiers in hopes that they hang themselves.
MDCOA: The arrival of armored vehicles in the area or the introduction of temporary flight restrictions would signal the Most Dangerous Course of Action, which is putting a cordon in place, escalating the situation, and increasing the likelihood of violence.
Article Link: https://www.oathkeepers.org/
malheur-sitrep-2200l-24-jan- 2016.
About the Author:
Samuel Culper is the director of Forward Observer, an Open Source Intelligence provider. He was an Army and contract Intelligence analyst with multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is also the author of two books: Security and SHTF Intelligence.
Praying for all involved, Blessings to us all.
Aubrey, you are absolutely right. We need ” unaltered” video, dash cam or otherwise of the incident to prove what happened. The problem is going to be the evidence being ” unaltered”. Law enforcement chose a very unoccupied dark stretch of road to stage their ambush.
For those who want to judge what happened at the scene, hopefully someone has video of the stop .
This will be the confirming fact if he was shot for no reason. I don’t trust either side until evidence is shown.
To 5WarVeteran: What is your source for the statement, “He was not running at a cop he was murdered standing still, complying, murdered in cold blood by the FBI in Oregon”? Were you there? Did you witness this personally, or are you relying on secondhand statements from others? (BTW – you sign yourself “5WarVeteran”. I enlisted in the Marine Corps on my 18th birthday and am an honorably discharged Korean War Veteran.)
“Peaceful Protesters” is not, in my opinion an accurate description of armed men who unlawfully broke into Federally owned property and since that time have been unlawfully preventing it’s use for its intended purpose. While I regret any loss of life, the man killed brought on his own death by his unlawful and unwise actions. I hope the others involved are all prosecuted to the full extent of the law and receive long prison sentences that will prevent them from committing similar crimes for a long time, anyway.
We have met the enemy. They murdered an unarmed man with his arms raised over his head in compliance but we will not hear of that on the media because he was a WHITE American named Lavoy Finicum who was peacefully protesting criminal BLM activities. He was not running at a cop he was murdered standing still, complying, murdered in cold blood by the FBI in Oregon.
AMERICA IS UNDER ATTACK
I have to add that had these men been black men that were shot, all hell would have broken loose by black lives matter, but there would be NO shooting of those VIOLENT rioters! Did they open fire on the Wall Street occupiers that would block bridges and freeways during rush hour and illegally camp and pollute all over cities throughout the country? NO, but it seems white, conservative men are fair game. I would really like to know what prompted the FBI to start shooting. Did the occupiers fire first or pose any threat? Or did the FBI just… Read more »
Update. 1 person was killed and several were arrested including Ammon Bundy when they were stopped on a roadway by FBI agents. Adisturbance developed during the stop.
You are a little late on this, although your hunches were correct. The FBI apparently made their move this week, killing one occupier and wounding another. This after the governor of Oregon was pushing the FBI to act immediately. She is at least partly responsible for one death and one injury to these peaceful protesters.