Incumbent House Losses Not a National Rebuke of ‘Trumpism’

President Trump Delivers a Statement on Midterm Election Results (The White House-video screen capture)

U.S.A. – -( With the turnover of the House of Representatives to the Democrats in Tuesday’s midterm elections, those who predicted a “Blue Wave” are ecstatic and pointing to a national “thumbs down” for the Donald Trump administration and its policies. While a surface “analysis,” (meaning no real effort besides parroting “progressive” talking points) may look like that’s what happened, a closer look suggests Democrat “wins” owe plenty to gun owner apathy over turning out to reelect “RINO” squishes. That and changing demographics.

I prepared the chart below based on the Fox News report “Incumbents ousted by opposition.” It focuses on House Republicans that lost their seats and lists their rating grades from the National Rifle Association, Gun Owners of America and immigration watchdog Numbers USA. The last is included because, denials of relevance by many in the “gun lobby” notwithstanding, it’s self-evident from all objective polls and real-world experience that manipulated entrance policies and a “pathway to citizenship” are supported by Democrats because they’re confident it will result in overwhelming political returns to the party.

Determining their scores is straightforward for Numbers USA and GOA. For reasons only the NRA can explain, access to their ratings requires membership log-in, so public stances often need to be gleaned from press releases that have not been taken down from the Political Victory Fund website, issues websites and news stories.

The following are the House GOP incumbents whose seats have flipped. Note that each grade is hyperlinked to its source:

Dean Heller NV-2 A B B
Barbara Comstock VA-10 A B D
Dave Brat VA-7 A A- A+
Kevin Yoder KS-3 A B B-
Randy Hultgren IL-14 A B B-
Peter Roskam IL-6 67% B- D-
John Faso NY-19 A* B D
Dan Donovan NY-11 ? F C+
Leonard Lance NJ-7 ? D C
Erik Paulsen MN-3 A* C D
Jason Lewis MN-2 Aq * A- C+
Mike Coffman CO-6 A* A- B
Keith Rothfus PA-17 A A- B
Pete Sessions TX-32 A+ B A+
John Culberson TX-7 A+ C B
Rod Blum IA-1 A* A A
David Young IA-3 A* B B-
Carlos Curbelo FL-26 ? D- F-
Steve Russell OK-5 93% A- B
Mike Bishop MI-8 ? B B

*  2016 rating

Name added from The Miami Herald:

Mia Love UT-4 A A- D

The race has not been officially called at this writing. Curiously, Love supports all kinds of “gun control.”

Added from Axios:

Scott Taylor VA-2 A B B-
Steve Knight CA-25 A B C-

Yet Taylor wants “3D guns” looked into.

There are some losses that hurt the hell out of us. Dave Brat and Pete Sessions come to mind.  Others are “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you” results.  You can’t afford to have someone inside the walls who will exploit past testimonials until it becomes politically expedient to publically betray you and stab you in the back.

Yeah, but some of these guys have pretty good grades, just not perfect, some will argue.  The perfect is the enemy of the good, right?

If you want to be a leader, act like one and inspire by word and deed. Don’t expect personal mediocrity and gutlessness to put fire in anyone’s belly. And if you dig deeper into some of those Numbers USA ratings, you’ll find a passing overall grade can include flat-out failures on specifics like “Reduce Unnecessary Worker Visas” and “Reduce Amnesty Entitlements,” the very categories that pose the greatest long-term cultural danger.

The other lesson for Republicans when you look at outright anti-gun punks like Dan Donovan of New York or Leonard Lance of New Jersey is that you can give the “progressives” everything they want and they still won’t vote for you in places where they dominate.  Sure, they might say nice things about you as they did with John McCain, but that was calculated to relegate anyone to the right of him into the “extremist” category.

We’ll see over the coming days, weeks and months how the rhetoric and actions pan out. I believe Nancy Pelosi when she says guns will be her “top priority” – albeit a Senate majority may dampen that somewhat, depending on how many will look to the midterms as a signal to start weaseling. I also look for nothing from House Oversight on Fast and Furious now that Elijah Cummings will likely take the reins and begin the obstruction and harassment of Donald Trump and his (our) agenda in earnest.

About David Codrea:David Codrea

David Codrea is the winner of multiple journalist awards for investigating / defending the RKBA and a long-time gun owner rights advocate who defiantly challenges the folly of citizen disarmament.

In addition to being a field editor/columnist at GUNS Magazine and a contributor to Firearms News, he blogs at “The War on Guns: Notes from the Resistance,” and posts on Twitter: @dcodrea and Facebook.

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William R Thornton

The reason the Republican can’t get any thing done when they had a majority was because of the rhinos in the Republican party. The biggest one is dead and flake didn’t run for reelection. Another one is no longer speaker. Now if the rest of them will grow a pair like Graham did and do some good.


Absolutely correct, Codrea. The fact that the entire media predicted Desantis and Kemp would lose for being so openly pro gun, pro trump, and anti illegal alien is also more proof that this election was not a rebuke on trump. Take a look at Florida – it was universal that Scott had a better chance than desantis because he distanced himself from trump and signed a gun control bill, while desantis said he would have vetoed it. Guess who finished with tens of thousands more votes?


It is a long known fact that any team that plays together has success. That is a lesson the repubs can learn from their opposition, the democrats stay together and they all sing the same talking point of the day. We, very well, could find it fortunate these people are gone from the ranks.


Expected house losses but not anywhere close to historical losses.

Plus how many RINO’s decided not to run for reelection?

Wild Bill

, Those RINOs deciding to get out were part of the swamp draining process. And that was a part of the DC swamp that only we voters could drain. It is an historical failing of the repubs that they can not stick together once they have a majority


If the quivering masses of jelly had actually done something to promote the wildly popular Trump agenda, Tuesdays election would have been a rout. Since they sat on their hands hoping to keep their seats, and in some cases resisting, they lost.

Wild Bill

, Yes, I know a family of four voters, out here in the country, that did not bother to vote, even though this was the most important mid-term election in their lives. Same old “my one vote is not going to help either way.” Now that Nacho O’Rourke was defeated, I suppose that they would say See my vote was not really needed. and pat themselves on the back for being smarter than the average bear.

J Buck

Be wary that monocular vision so occluded by one issue doesn’t lead to downfall. Getting in bed with those who have one redeeming virtue doesn’t make for a good night’s sleep!