Homicide Data Show No Justification for Blanket Citizen Disarmament

U.S.A. – -(Ammoland.com)- “Murders in United States are very concentrated, and they are becoming even more so,” a new paper by economist and author John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center demonstrates. “Most counties experience no murders, a smaller subset of counties where there are a few murders, and then a minuscule subset of counties where murders are very common.”

“Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas, and even in those counties, murders are concentrated in small areas inside them, and any solution must reduce those murders,” Lott concludes.

Lotts paper begins with this quote:

Murders in United States are very concentrated: 2% of counties had 56% of the murders in 2020, 52% of US counties had zero murders.

Compare that to the way anti-gunners first of all blame guns, and then spread things out to create and spread deceptively inane memes like “U.S. Is Global Leader in Gun Violence and Ownership,” and “States with weaker gun laws have higher rates of firearm-related homicides and suicides, study finds.” (Remember that numbers and rates are two very different things. One death in a low-population area can register as a higher rate than multiple deaths in a high-population area. The gun banners are counting on that confusion.)

The third leg of that stool, and talk about an aptronym considering it’s a lie, is “Females at increased risk of at-home homicide by gun violence.”

Yes, females and males in criminal households (with the legal and moral distinction that guns — especially stolen ones — aren’t “owned, but “possessed”) are no doubt more likely to have all sorts of bad things happen to them. It’s also true that criminals will be criminals regardless of a state’s “gun” or other laws.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has been signaling a one-size-fits-all intent following recent “mass shootings” in a state held out by all the leading gun-grab groups as the model for the rest of the country. The upshot? Not only is what they have not enough, but we won’t see things turn around as long as other states are free to avoid restrictions.

That’s a far cry from the web of deceit Barack Obama spun back when he was trying to scam Americans out of their guns and tried a completely different tack.

“What works in Chicago may not work in Cheyenne.”

With crime “soaring” 61% under the Lori Lightfoot administration, it’s fair to ask, “Exactly what the hell is it that works in Chicago?”

Rather than address the systemic corruption and incompetence that is the hallmark of America’s urban Democrat political regimes, the violence monopolists and their media cheerleaders continue to either ignore Lott’s work or smear him with ad hominem attacks when they see fit to mention him at all. So, it’s hardly unexpected to see USA Today (and it really is no surprise for those who follow such things) out there offering anecdotes to argue that the killings are homogeneously distributed throughout the Republic and across all age groups between everyone in Everytown. And naturally, this is the “expert” conclusion they guide us to:

“It’s the guns. It’s always been the guns,” said Lisa Geller, a public health researcher at the Center for Gun Violence Solutions at Johns Hopkins University.

No agenda there… it’s “settled science”!

And just the thing to stop the violence is more “gun laws. For proof, the rights swindlers assure us, look at all the laws imposed in Switzerland, where they have guns but don’t have the crime and violence we’re told is representative of the whole U.S. (which the county data proves is bull).

The curious thing about that is they’re leaving  a significant difference between populations being compared completely out of their “analysis.” Considering the implications, it’s difficult to believe that’s not intentional. Especially since what they’re pushing is tyranny.

There’s one other curious thing, something I noticed right off when I saw the list of counties in Lott’s paper and started going down it based on the worst of the worst in terms of the number of murders:

  • Cook County—the high population center there is Chicago.
  • Los Angeles County – L.A., of course.
  • Harris County – that would be Houston.
  • Philadelphia County – the City of Brotherly Love!
  • New York City – encompassing five counties.

Those are the “top” five and that’s enough to make the point that all of them are Bloomberg cities, members of Mayors Against Illegal (read “Your”) Guns. We could keep going down the list and cite Detroit, Baltimore, Memphis…

If the problem were guns, the millions of members of the NRA, GOA, SAF, and the like, arguably the most heavily armed civilian population on the planet, would be the most violent population instead of the most demonstrably peaceable, both in terms of numbers and of rates.

The inconvenient truth those who would rule don’t want people to know: The guns aren’t the problem. Those who say otherwise are lying.

About David Codrea:

David Codrea is the winner of multiple journalist awards for investigating/defending the RKBA and a long-time gun owner rights advocate who defiantly challenges the folly of citizen disarmament. He blogs at “The War on Guns: Notes from the Resistance,” is a regularly featured contributor to Firearms News, and posts on Twitter: @dcodrea and Facebook.

David Codrea

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uncle dudley

We don’t have a gun problem; we have a Democrat problem.
Keep the guns get rid of the Democrats.


That’s a great idea!


Like most of us… when I was a kid, you didn’t hear about every single homicide on the evening news with Walter Cronkite.

Its a product of our times… real time news from every nook and cranny in the world. Leave it at that.


control freaks don’t use specifics they use ambiguous, non-descript wording and generalizations in an attempt to confuse the ill informed into believing their statements. if you actually look at the data, science if you will, you will see that is true.
if you cannot state reputable data in defense of your argument you don’t have a good one and bu11sh1t for an argument.


I cannot comment this enough on Ammoland: Use, “The World Almanac and Book of Facts”, published yearly and sold everywhere. In it, there’s the “FBI Uniform Crime Report”. It presents the latest statistics on nearly all the critical crime issues. If any anti dares debate you, slam the book down on the table for effect, when he/she spews bull s&@t.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wass

There is no such thing as ” gun violence ” but there is violent humans that commit violence with a tool called a firearm . Most of the criminals committing these firearm crimes live in Democrat controlled blue shitholes . There I fixed that for the lying clowns trying to promote false narratives to disarm lawbiding citizens. Democrats need to lock up the criminals and forget villainizing an inanimate object.


Right on!


They have known this to be true for decades, but it has stopped them from enacting laws that has done nothing to curb the violence. lol

Last edited 1 month ago by Arny

Too many people have a simple and basic misunderstanding about “gun control.” “Gun control” is not now, and has never been, about crime, criminals, or public safety. Quite frankly, the Left couldn’t give a rat’s behind about crime, criminals, or public safety. Gun control is, and has always been, about disarming the citizenry so they cannot represent a threat to the government once the Left establishes the dictatorship they have been working toward since the 1960s and, thanks to the stolen elections of November 2020, January 2021, and November 2022, are now in the process of consolidating. The key word in the term “gun… Read more »


choc – TRUE – there have been a few ‘admissions’ from the anti gun crowd (that are NOT covered by the lame stream media) that they KNOW that criminals will NOT obey any new ‘gun control’ laws any more than they obey the current ones. They are not the target – we are.


We don’t need gun control; we need county control. That is, we need, in the lawless counties where the drug gangs – liberally replenished by the senile imbecile in the oval office’s laughable “immigration” policy – ply their violent, murderous, and increasingly cartel-proxy trade, a clamp down on the perpetrators. As in raids, arrests, incarceration, no bail, no early release, no deportation (they’ll just come back), no appeal. Feeding a bunch of penned wolves is cheaper and more manageable than fighting them off every day. We need a test case; a set of counties willing to Stalinize/Nazify/whatever the crime problem… Read more »


Yet another great article by David!

I’m going to have to get John Lott’s book.


Several of my old military acquaintances (Retired USAF) and I got into this discussion online. I asked each of them to ask their local police or sheriff when was their last murder (with or without a gun). One said his department had a murder three years earlier (domestic violence). Another guy said his county Sheriff (met him over breakfast) had to think about it for a moment as he couldn’t remember and finally they figured out about seven years ago (prior to that about 10 years, so seventeen years since a local murder). In the case they remembered from several… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by catmsfa

“What works in Chicago?” CHAOS, FEAR, NEED FOR ILLUSION OF SAFETY……available only from the Elites if We The Little Peeps hand over our freedom, rights, liberty to them. One confuses We The Little Peeps common sense pro-America agendas as being the agendas of the Libturd Elitists.


Benjamin Disraeli, British Prime Minister in the late 1880s nailed it when he said, “There are 3 types of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics.” The anti-gun groups are guilty of all 3 types of lies every time the speak or write something.


Hmmm I always thought that came fro Mark Twain/Sam Clemmens. Mebbe one stole from the other? I think Clemmens was earlier but not certain. Maybe some statistics will he,p sort it out….

in any case, the saying holds a lot of truth. Everytown are experts at all three categories of prevarication. Consider their origins…….


If the problem were guns, the millions of members of the NRA, GOA, SAF, and the like, arguably the most heavily armed civilian population on the planet, would be the most violent population instead of the most demonstrably peaceable, both in terms of numbers and of rates.

It sounds like a call to action, but we are the most demonstrably peaceful community, so we continue to look at this lawlessness from the outside.


eliminate the top 20 citys with the strictest gun control laws and the statistics drastically change, we said from the beginning, if you outlaw guns only outlaws will have them, more often than not, the criminal kills himself when the cops show up with their guns!


Can’t say it.
It’s B***k History Month.


Not a fan of this title. Sounds like you could support some Peaceful American Disarmament.