There has been speculation about the effect of wind on the trajectory of the bullets fired at Presidential Candidate, former President Donald Trump. According to media reports, the would-be assassin fired from a position North of Donald Trump, about 130 meters away.
Measurement on Google Maps puts the distance at about 441 feet, 147 yards, or 134 meters. This is close to the BBC estimate of 130 meters for the shot. The direction of the shot was from North to South, at about 20 degrees East of North toward 20 degrees West of South. Meridian Rd, on the right side of the image, runs North/South.
Fortunately, there is a weather station in Butler, less than five miles away, almost due East. Station KPABUTLE38 recorded wind direction and speed on July 13, 2024. The assassination attempt happened about 6:12 P.M. Here are the wind speeds and directions recorded five miles away during that period:
The winds were mostly light and variable. Consider the directions shown for the winds from 5:59 P.M. to 6:29 P.M. The varied considerably from SE, WSW, South, North, SSW, SW, and WSW. WNW or ESE would be the closest cardinal directions to be direct crosswinds to the line of fire. Because the wind was so variable, it is possible there was a direct cross wind, but the odds favor a wind about 45 degrees or less to the line of fire. Gusts were recorded of up to 8.9 mph.
A direct crosswind of 5 mph would result in a standard 5.56 round being moved by the wind about 1.15 inches cross to the line of fire at 150 yards.
An examination of flags flying near the Butler Farm venue, taken from a video time-stamped at the event, might give us a more accurate picture of the direction of the wind when the shot was fired. It seems unlikely wind was a strong contributor to the would-be assassin missing the shots taken.
With wind as variable as it was that day, a wind effect can not be ruled out. It is possible a gust of wind from the WNW at about 9 mph could have occurred at the moment of the shot. Such a gust would have moved the bullet 2.06 inches to the left of the person firing the shot or to the right of Donald Trump. That could have been the difference between a wound to the ear or death for the former president and presidential candidate.
Combine a possible wind effect with the turning of Donald Trump’s head and the inherent variation in ammunition and rifles, and the would-be assassin could have held dead on and still only scored an ear for their efforts if the variables combined to move the bullet to the right of Donald Trump as his head moved to the left. It is well known in the hunting fields that game can move just as a shot is fired, resulting in a missed shot.
Variable wind, such as occurred on the day of the attempted assassination, can make precise shots difficult for expert shooters. On such a small scale, trees and buildings create eddies in the wind, further complicating the picture. When the wind can come from many directions, judging windage is mostly an educated guess.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
Isn’t it amusing how the people who preach peace, love, tolerance, have a pagan like fetish for death?
Even out modern obsession with abortion just simply child sacrifice.
The deep state trying to kill Trump, being that paranoid about him, makes you wonder what they know about his plans that makes them so bold.
Some idiot was saying that there was no sonic boom from the bullet that went by his head, because subsonic ammunition was used. WHY would anyone risk wind drift throwing off such an important shot with a bullet that is moving at a slower than normal rate? You want that bullet moving as fast as possible for two reasons; 1) more energy is delivered to the target, and 2) it gets there quicker so wind drift is kept out of the equation as much as possible!
that just shows how sick they are
That guy should have never had the opportunity to get a single shot off. Total failure by our government and the secret service. I personally consider this failure to be criminally negligent. Heads should roll! (Figuratively speaking)
The F-er Crooks does massive background intel gathering on many things, including studying Oswald (who used a bolt action and real scope), yet Crooks tries to pop a watermelon at 150 yards away using a basic AR15 and a 1x RDS? And now the Eff B Eye says they have a pakistan dude who was involved with the assassination attempt? I can smell this dead fish from 50 miles away! It’s a full-blown Govt cover-up, CIA style.
The hand of God trumps all!
Men with evil intent may have precipitated a situation with an easily influenced individual.