The National Instant Criminal Background Check System numbers decreased significantly for November 2025 compared to November 2024. An increase in firearm sales is normal for November. It happened in 2025, but firearm sales are 7% lower than those in November 2024. About 1.41 million firearm sales occurred in November of 2025, as estimated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation. 1.51 million firearms were estimated to be sold in November last year. The number of background checks for November was much lower than expected, about 2.09 million. It is the lowest number of background checks in November since 2014, more than a decade ago. From NSSF:
The November 2025 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,408,230 is a decrease of 7.0 percent compared to the November 2024 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,514,773. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2025 FBI NICS figure of 2,005,667 reflects a 20.1 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,509,368 in November 2024.
The estimate of firearms sales is following a similar pattern to what happened in President Trump’s first term. Firearm sales increased in the year of the presidential election. They dropped as President Trump’s policies started to produce greater domestic and international stability. The same effect seems to be happening in his second term.
As the world becomes more stable, the demand for firearms in the United States is expected to decrease. The more stable the USA becomes domestically, the lower the demand for firearms. Hunting seasons are common in November. Firearm sales increased as expected. December usually has higher sales than November, but not always. November NICS checks were higher than in December in the presidential election year of 2008, when Barack Obama was elected. If President Trump and the Republican Congress are successful in bringing about peace and prosperity, expect firearm sales to continue to decline.
A potential upside is the continuing political and judicial battle to remove silencers, short barreled rifles (SBR), short barreled shotguns (SBS), and any other weapons (AOW) from the confining and dubious restrictions of the National Firearms Act (NFA). The tax on these items has been reduced from $200 for silencers, SBR, and SBS to zero. The tax has been reduced for AOW from $5 to zero. The intrusive regulatory requirements for applications, pictures, and fingerprints remain, at least for now. Those requirements are being challenged in the courts. Currently, the Republicans do not have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster.
The popularity of silencers has skyrocketed. The easier silencers/suppressors become to legally obtain, the higher the demand for firearms that can effectively use silencers. If silencers become as legally simple to obtain as rifles and shotguns, expect a considerable bump in sales of both silencers and firearms that can easily use them. The number of rifles and pistols that have threaded barrels is already on the rise.
The easier short barreled rifles and shotguns become to legally obtain, the higher demand for short barreled firearms with shoulder stocks. If SBRs are taken from the NFA, expect higher sales. Expect higher sales of pistols that can accept a shoulder stock. If SBS are taken from the NFA, expect pistols dedicated to firing shot rounds. Bullpup shotguns such as the Keltec KS7 and others, and short barreled firearms which shoot shotgun shells, but do not have a shoulder stock, such as the Mossberg Shockwave are already meeting some of the demand in this area.
The reduction of the NFA tax to zero for the above items goes into effect on January 1, 2025.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
Dean, perhaps the reduction in gun sales has less to do with desire and more to do with limited funds. Feeding the family takes precedence over indulging a hobby. While at least some of the current reduction in gun spending power may be attributable to fairly normal inflationary pressures, these pressures are hitting more immediately visible products. Coffee is up substantially. You need a second mortgage to purchase a bone-in rib-eye. Even an avocado has nearly tripled in price where I live. The costs of simply feeding a family are hitting hard. So, while I would love to buy a… Read more »
On the floors of our local gun shows and in our local gun stores here in Arizona folks simply do not have a lot of walking around money. People who are hitting the shows are looking for collectables and very specific higher end purchases. Plastic guns and imported knock offs are simply not selling. So I can tell you first hand if you are looking to buy a new gun this is probably the time. But collectables are going at a price. Buyers are increasingly snapping up higher value rare guns. They are an inflation hedge just like precious metals.… Read more »
Perused Academy Sports and their ammo and firearms are still expensive, 325 rds. .22LR sells for $44.00, .357mag $38.00, 200 rds. .45 ACP FMJ $98.99. I see articles that prices are dropping, but I don’t see it.
Gun counter guy said people look at the prices and walk out, but some do buy a box or two.
Cmon folks, we can do better!
People feel safer with Trump, so less sales. Makes sense. US-MX border in CA will now be laced with US Mil. People are fools to think Trump’s success will last forever. I always made jokes about urban preppers, but now I see why they are right. Not if, just when. When is sooner than later (that’s not a question).
I have postponed indefinitely two “I want this other gun” purchases even though they’re not even $1000 each. I agree that things are not getting worse as fast as before, but I need more encouragement about prices before I will commit. In the meantime, the ammo prices on the ammoland specials make it look like prices per round are coming down some. At least you can GET the stuff, unlike during the Obummer years when shelves were empty except for what cost four times as much as the year 2007.