U.S.A. -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates June 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 2,387,524 units, a year-over-year increase of 145.3% from June 2019. Likely single handgun sales (1,511,714) increased year-over-year by 177.5% whereas single long-gun sales (690,212) increased year-over-year by 114.3%. All other likely background check-related sales (185,599) increased year-over-year by 74.0%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for June, some 3,909,502) cannot be taken at face value as large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in June the state of Kentucky conducted about 350,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 46,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “relative to same-month sales in June 2019, firearms sales soared yet again in June 2020. Once more, demand was particularly strong for handguns. The first week of June saw especially high background check volumes, presumably related to the aftermath of the killing of Mr. George Floyd.”
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Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidence-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM have legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)