Study Shows Gun Ownership may be Double Previous Estimate

On June 23, a study on the underreporting of firearm ownership was published in the Journal ” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology.” The title is “Predicting potential underreporting of firearm ownership in a nationally representative sample,” hereafter referred to as the ‘study.’  The study indicated the number of people who refuse to report they are firearm owners, who have been called “shy” firearms owners, are about as numerous as firearms owners willing to identify themselves as such.

The full study is behind a paywall online. Allison E. Bond, the principal author of the study, was very kind and sent a copy for me to read for this article.

The study used a sample of 3500 people who were chosen to be a representative of United States adults.  The number of adults in the United States at the time of the survey was about 258 million.  They found 34.6% of those surveyed admitted to owning firearms, about 89 million people. The study estimated another 29.6% of respondents were likely to be “shy” gun owners. This would put the total number of gun owners in the US at roughly 64% of adults, or 166 million people.

The study found that American gun owners are more diverse than previously thought. The percentage of women and people of color who own guns is growing rapidly.

The number of “shy” firearms owners has been a major uncertainty overhanging the study of firearms ownership and its effects in the United States. The study approached the uncertainty from the perspective of interest in understanding and preventing suicide in the nation’s population. While the study acknowledged 50% of suicides in the US involve firearms, it did not mention the percentage involving firearms has fallen from about 60% in the early and mid-1990s.

Any attempt to measure the number of “shy” gun owners is difficult. The study was clear about the difficulty: 

Ultimately, our model cannot conclusively determine whether those designated as potential firearm owners truly owned firearms at the time of the survey—nor can we determine why they falsely denied firearm ownership if, in fact, they did so.

As is common in academic studies, the paper calls for more study.  There are several ways of better understanding the number of gun owners that might be gleaned from careful data gathering. Surveys might be designed to find the “shy” gun owner. An intensive investigation of small samples might prove informative. Statistical evidence may be available from the FBI NICS system. The few states which require gun registration for legal ownership may give clues to trends in gun ownership numbers. From the study:

Several limitations must be considered in interpreting our findings. First, our model cannot conclusively determine whether any of the probable firearm owners are actual firearm owners. As such, this preliminary examination rests on empirical assumptions and must be seen as an initial test in need of independent replication and more nuanced analysis.

The number of gun owners willing to announce their ownership status in a survey is fairly close to the large survey done in 2021 by Dr. William English. Dr. English found 31.9% of adults were willing to disclose they owned a firearm, which compares favorably to the 34.6% found in the current study.  Both surveys were done with known samples rather than as random telephone surveys. The response to telephone surveys has fallen enormously since 1997. The response in 1997 was 36%. From pewresearch.org:

In 2017 and 2018, typical telephone survey response rates fell to 7% and 6%, respectively, according to the Center’s latest data. Response rates had previously held steady around 9% for several years.

Random telephone surveys have become less and less reliable as a result of a lack of participation.

The precise number of “shy” gun owners is not clear. The number is probably substantial. Such numbers have significant political consequences. If there are 166 million gun-owning adults in the USA, it explains much of the political success of Second Amendment supporters. If nearly half of them are “shy” gun owners, the “shy” gun owners may also be “shy” about responding to surveys that indicate support for or against the right to keep and bear arms.

About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.