U.S.A. -(AmmoLand.com)- (GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA) – Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates August 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 1.8 million units, a year-over-year increase of 57.8% from August 2019. Likely single handgun sales (1.0 million) increased year-over-year by 66.0% whereas single long-gun sales (0.64 million) increased year-over-year by 48.4%. All other likely background check-related sales (0.14 million) increased year-over-year by 46.5%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the exact split between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
Detailed data by firearms type and state are available for purchase at SmallArmsAnalytics.com.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for August, some 3,085,277) cannot be taken at face value as large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in August the state of Illinois conducted about 550,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user unit sales at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 50,000. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the true number of sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “August’s year-over-year increase of 57.8% is the lowest year-over increase seen in the past six months. At nearly 15 million units sold, the sales pace thus far this year now exceeds the total 12-months sales of 2019 by just over one million firearms. With the hunting season about to begin in earnest and the presidential election season about to start in earnest as well, 2020 will without doubt exceed the previous high of 16.6 million units sold in 2016.”
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Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media.
Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)