The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) released a report in 2024 detailing updated data about traces involving Privately Made Firearms (PMF), sometimes referred to as “ghost guns” in the media. The data covers traces from 2017 through 2023. ATF also publishes overall trace data for firearms for the covered years.
The total number of firearms traced in the seven years 2017-2023 was 2,880,257. Of those, PMF traced are 92,702, or 3.2% of the total. The number of PMFs traced has been growing. In 2023, 5.4% of the total firearms traced were PMFs. Of the total homicides involving firearms from 2017 to 2023, only 1.5% were associated with PMFs. There were 1,349 homicides associated with PMFs and 87,341 homicides associated with manufactured firearms. For manufactured firearms, there were .031 homicides per trace; for PMFs there were .015 homicides per trace.
There were more than twice as many homicides per manufactured firearms traced as there were homicides for privately made firearms (PMF) traced.
The ATF data showed how many traces were associated with attempted homicides. For manufactured firearms, there were .0054 attempted homicides associated with firearms per trace. For PMF, there were .0037 attempted homicides per trace. Of total homicides and attempted homicides associated with manufactured firearms, attempted homicides were 15%. Of total homicides and attempted homicides with PMF, attempted homicides were 20%. It appears homicide attempts with PMF are less likely to result in death.
According to the ATF’s data, not only were PMFs less than half as likely to be used in a homicide per trace, when attempted homicides are considered, PMFs are less likely to result in a death.
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Homicides and attempted homicides are involved in a small number of firearm traces. They are associated with about .036 of traces of manufactured firearms and about .019 of traces of PMF. Most traces of manufactured firearms are for victimless crimes, such as possession, firearm under investigation, and carrying a concealed weapon. These account for about 67% of traces of PMF and about 60% of traces for manufactured firearms. Of the manufactured firearms traced, 80.4% are handguns. Of the PMFs traced, 64% are handguns.
If privately made firearms are traced at roughly the same percentage as manufactured firearms in the United States, then approximately 3.2% of the private stock consists of PMFs, or about .032 x 500 million, or 16 million PMFs in the United States. If the latest figures from 2023 are used, 0.054 x 500 million or 27 million PMF exist in the United States.
It is likely that PMFs are oversampled in firearms traces because of administrative emphasis on recording PMFs. Some states have statutorily criminalized possession of privately manufactured firearms; this could explain the higher level of victimless crimes in the PMF statistics. 56% of PMF traces are from California, Illinois, and Maryland.
PMFs are difficult to trace because they lack a serial number, but they are no more difficult to trace than most of the 500 million firearms in the USA. Once a firearm has been sold, there is no registration system in the USA, only the ability to trace the firearm to the first retail sale.
Privately sold, gifted, or inherited firearms are often difficult to trace after a few years. Firearms more than 20 years old become practically untraceable. Stolen firearms become virtually untraceable. Firearms registration by the Federal government is illegal in the USA and in some states. Few states register firearms. The practice of firearm registration is constitutionally suspect. Almost 300 million firearms in the United States are more than 20 years old.
Firearms traces are seldom used to solve violent crimes. Tens of millions of dollars are spent on firearms registration. In Canada, over a period of 60 years and tens of thousands of police hours, the Canadian Department of Justice could not identify a single instance where handgun registration helped to solve a crime.
If the same resources were used for police and detective work, many lives could be saved and crimes prevented. Resources are limited. It is best to use them wisely. Private individuals have been making their own firearms since well before the Constitution was ratified. The tradition will continue. It is a time-honored part of the right to keep and bear arms.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
And this matters why?
If I buy a kitchen knife in Wyoming and kill someone with it in Florida, the police want to trace it back to the sale in Wyoming? Or what if I straw purchased a kitchen knife? The baffoonery runs rampid.
@Dean – Looks like you dropped a digit somewhere. Three options – 2.88M traces instead of 288k, 9.3k PMF traces rather than 93k – or PMFs make up 32% of traces instead of 3.2%.
Did not use calculator, so 32% may be wrong – just looks about right given numbers above.
Venturing a guess as to why homicides per trace is higher for manufactured firearms – I would guess that cops are suspicious of any PMF, so more likely to run an unjustified trace.
Final question – how does ATF run a trace on a firearm with no serial number?
I am still waiting to see evidence of any significant crime being solved by the tracing of a firearm. It’s extremely rare for a firearm to be recovered from a crime incident where it is not accompanying the perp himself, therefore tracing is useless in the dynamic of crime solving.
“In Canada, over a period of 60 years and tens of thousands of police hours, the Canadian Department of Justice could not identify a single instance where handgun registration helped to solve a crime.”
Except for the new crime of “having an unregistered gun,” which was a crime only because there was… a registry!
These reports usually have fine print that says the numbers don’t reflect much of anything not explicitly stated in the report. Because not all traced guns are “crime guns” and perhaps more to the current point, not all “crime guns” are traced.
Think back to the “Fast and Furious” days. Why would ATF try to run a trace on an obviously ChiCom made full auto AK47?
Similarly, how does one trace a 3D printed lower that has no serial number?
PMFs, commonly known as “ghost guns” ARE more dangerous than manufactured guns !! Everybody knows that, for example, that 9mm handguns will blow your lungs right out, therefore ghost gun 9mm will make your legs and arms fall off from your torso, AND if +p ammo is used your head will also come right off. Just wake Joe Biden up and ask him.