U.S. Outlier in Mass Public Shooting Events, or Singular Mass Shooters?

International Firearms Ownership and Homicides
International Firearms Ownership and Homicides

U.S.A.-(Ammoland.com)- In 2016 Adam Lankford of the University of Alabama, published a paper examining the distribution of mass shooting/mass shooters around the world. The published result concluded the United States had a disproportionate number of these rare events.  Lankford's study showed the United States had 5% of the world's population, but 31% of the the mass shootings/mass shooters, as defined by Lankford.  It has become clear that Lankford was looking almost exclusively at single perpetrators, though he included about 2% where two people were involved. Lankford excluded terrorist attacks he identified as “sponsored” terrorism, but included some terrorist attacks.

John Lott questioned Lankford's finding based on the definitions used in the paper, which treated mass shootings and mass shooters as equivalents, although it was not precisely clear which definition was of a higher priority.

There is a discussion by both sides featured in Econ Journal Watch from March of 2019. Here is a link to John Lott's and Carlisle E. Moody's critique and Adam Lankford's reply.

Lott and Carlisle's critique relies heavily on definitions. They show, if the definition used by the FBI in its 2014 active shooter report, referenced by Lankford, is rigorously followed, then Lankford's paper is misleading about mass public shootings in the rest of the world. They agree the United States has more single perpetrator public mass shootings than other parts of the world. They show many other parts of the world have many more public mass shootings than the United States, with multiple perpetrators. One of Lott and Carlisle's critiques is that Lankford refused to release the data his study is based upon.

Lott and Carlisle provide links to the data they used in their study, which was not limited to single perpetrator public mass shootings. Using the FBI's definition, which does not exclude terrorism, Lott and Carlisle find the USA has 2.9% of public mass shootings for 4.5% of the world's population.

Lott and Carlisle examined data from 1998 to 2012. They state finding data of any earlier crimes is extremely difficult, especially for events before use of the Internet became common.

Lankford looked at data from 1966 to 2012. Lankford has been regularly criticized for not releasing his data and for the difficulty of finding rare events in non-English speaking countries that occurred decades ago.

Adam Lankford, in reply, admits his definitions could have been more precise. He makes the argument it makes no practical difference because the definitions are about 98% congruent. That appears to be true in the United States. It is not so clear in the rest of the world. He claims the Lott and Carlisle data supports his claims for single perpetrator mass shootings.

The definition of a public mass shooting has a long history of confusion and contention.

Multiple definitions have been used. Definitions have political implications. Former Prime Minister John Howard used a changed definition of mass shooting to claim Australia had no mass shootings after the highly restrictive gun laws in Australia were put in place in 1997, after the public mass shooting at Port Arthur in 1996.

The definition used in Australian studies before 1996 was four victims shot and killed, and included private murders. In 2014 Geoff Hunt killed himself and four family members. It was a domestic killing, with Hunt killing his disabled wife and children. The Australian definition did not exclude domestic, gang, crime or terrorist murders. The definition was changed to five victims shot and killed, apparently to exclude the Hunt murders. From smh.com.au:

 “I don't believe we were on the cusp of going down the American path,” Howard said. “But I do think the gun laws have had the practical value of reducing the mass slaughters. There were 13 before the new laws; and if you define such an event as five or more victims,  there have been none since.

The National Institute of Justice in the United States has recognized the problem of definitions when studying mass shootings. They considered incidents, not perpetrators.  From nij.ojp.gov:

The literature does not define “mass shooting” consistently, or even in similar contexts. The federal criminal code lacks a distinct mass shooting offense; this may help explain why researchers use different terminology, or types of criminal offense, in their analyses of the same phenomenon.[5]

Among the 44 studies analyzed, the most common definition of a mass shooting is an incident in which four or more victims are killed with a firearm in a public place (48%). Several studies defined the offense as an event during which as few as two (5%) or three (9%) victims are killed, whereas more than one-third of the studies more broadly defined the term as an incident in which multiple victims are killed (38%). Others either defined a mass shooting incident as having a minimum of five victims or did not specify a victim threshold.

The definitions in the analyzed studies include incidents that take place in publicly accessible spaces such as schools, workplaces, places of worship, and businesses. The incidents are also defined as a single, continuous event within a short time frame, but the specific time frame can vary. The definitions often exclude ideologically motivated terrorist acts as well as gang, drug, and other shooting incidents that resulted primarily from the commission of other crimes, such as aggravated robbery, familicides, and domestic violence. Some of these studies, however, do not specify whether certain types of offenses were excluded from the definition.

Some definitions of “mass shooting” include all incidents where 4 or more people were injured or killed, regardless of the context.

In Lankford's response to Lott and Carlisle's critique, he uses several examples from their data set, which is publicly available. Lott and Carlisle are hindered, because they do not know exactly what incidents Lankford included in his data set, and which incidents he excluded.

A major contention is over what proportion of mass shootings, where the number of perpetrators is unknown, could be assumed to be 1, or perhaps 2 perpetrators, in the international data. Data gathered from open sources, such as online newspapers from foreign countries, is spotty. Better reporting in the United States is likely to show a bias against the United States.

Lankford's paper showed no correlation between the homicide rate or the suicide rate in a country, and the number of mass shootings. It showed a correlation between firearms ownership in a country and the number of mass shootings. This implies there would be no correlation between firearm ownership and either the homicide rate or suicide rate in different countries.

Other researchers have found there is no correlation between firearms ownership and homicide or suicide rates among all countries. There are studies that show a correlation of gun ownership and gun homicides or gun suicides, but this is irrelevant. It makes no difference if homicides with guns or suicides with guns are reduced if the overall homicide or suicide rate is unaffected or increases. There are studies which bias the result by carefully picking which countries to compare, excluding some and choosing others.

This popular paper in Medium takes a relatively unbiased look at international statistics and how they are manipulated with relationship to gun data. One of the primary methods is to only look at “gun deaths” instead of homicide or suicide rates.

Without Lankford's data set, it is impossible to know if his data would confirm that gun ownership levels are not correlated to homicide or suicide rates in different countries.

It is of interest because Lankford cites several studies that claim a correlation between suicide and homicide and gun ownership inside the United States. It is difficult to determine the number of gun owners in each state. Typically, proxies are used. Lankford was apparently not interested enough to determine if those papers would be contradicted by the international data.

Looking at mass shootings only is a way to look only at gun deaths.

It is overall homicides that matter, not only homicides with guns. Similarly, it is overall suicides that matter, not suicides with guns.

The international data is fairly clear that gun ownership, by itself, does not increase homicide or suicide rates.

It may be the United States has a significantly higher rate of single perpetrator mass murder shootings than other countries. It is irrelevant if the overall homicide rates are not affected by gun ownership.

In his paper, Lankford makes a statement about the Australian experience with extreme gun control. He states:

It may take more cases of unambiguously successful gun control, such as Australia’s, to begin to gradually change America’s gun culture. Or it may take more scholarly research which provides empirical evidence of the link between firearms availability and public mass shootings and thus shows that policymakers and legislators may be able to directly influence the prevalence of these high-lethality crimes.

The Australian gun control scheme has been far from unambiguously successful. Several papers have shown no significant effect on homicides or suicides. Using Lankford's apparent definition of public mass shooting, Australia had four in the 25 years previous to 1996, and one in the 23 years after 1996 (not the Hunt murders. The mass public shooting event occurred in 2019, after the John Howard statement, and after the Lankford paper was published). The numbers are so small as to be statistically meaningless.

Even the small, statistically meaningless numbers may be explained by the change in the coverage by Australian media. Before the 1996 mass murder in Port Arthur, the Australian media had intense coverage of mass shootings. The Port Arthur killings were an example of media contagion. The perpetrator, during the trial, repeatedly asked if he had “broke the record”.  After Port Arthur, having attained the desired policy change, the Australia media coverage of mass shootings changed considerably. Having lived in Australia for a total of 9 months in 2017, 2018, and 2019, I am relying on my personal observations from Australian media, and from records of the media before Port Arthur.

Lankford has shown the United States has a culture which uniquely values “fame”, and whose media elite glorify mass killing by gun beyond most other cultures.

Unfortunately, many American public mass shooters also seek fame and glory—but they obtain it through killing—and the media coverage they receive in the United States seems to give them exactly what they want (Langman, 2015a; Lankford, 2013; Lankford & Hakim, 2011; Larkin, 2009; Newman et al., 2004).

It seems plausible the media contagion effect drives the American mass shooting phenomena more than the American high level of gun ownership.

Lankford notes the level of American gun ownership is difficult to change. Media contagion may be more amenable to change than levels of American gun ownership. The American media, collectively, changed their policy on publicizing celebrity suicides, when it was learned that suicide clusters were fostered by media contagion.

The policy was voluntary. Given major media's commitment to promoting restrictive gun policies, it is unknown if voluntary cooperation in reducing mass shootings is possible, given the current major media ideological orientation.

Definitions and data sets are important. One of the keys to replicating scientific research is to have the data sets publicly available.  Papers that restrict access to the data used in the paper are subject to deserved skepticism.

Lankford does not appear to consider any of the costs of gun restrictions. Costs are important.

It is a bad policy to change society based on extremely rare events, events covered by an ideologically driven media to obtain a specific policy that media elites desire.

It is as if, having exhausted homicide and suicide to justify restrictive gun controls, those who desire an unarmed society have turned to extremely rare events to justify their policy choices. It is a common way to manipulate the democratic process.

In April of 2020, a Canadian who was prohibited from legally obtaining firearms went on a murder rampage, killing at least 22. Nine of the deaths were reported to have been by arson.

It does not appear any of the firearms used by the Canadian were legally obtained or were semi-automatic firearms demonized by the Canadian Prime Minister as “assault weapons”.

The Prime Minister used the horrific event to launch his desired ban on the so-called “assault weapons”, which do not appear to have been used in the crime.



About Dean Weingarten:Dean Weingarten

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.

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Catatonic
Catatonic
5 months ago

And, ultimately, reports and rebuttals like the ones discussed here by Mr. Weingarten won’t make the slightest bit of difference in anything. Everyone will pick and choose the reports and data that they like and that “confirms” their theories, and ignore everything else. People will scream at one another (as is being done in the totally-off-topic comments to this article below). Panic, hysteria, ire, and angst will be felt and expressed. None of it matters in the long run. None of it will make any difference. People talk and talk and things rarely change, except for the worse. Or, maybe… Read more »

gregs
gregs
5 months ago

this is what you get when a leftist purports to conduct research. BS in, BS out. scientific method be damned, I will get the data I want to support my hypothesis. I frequently use professors lott and kleck research when discussing firearms data with lefties. they hate it and deny it and counter with talking points from nyt, huffpo and the like. love to get their blood pressure up.

Divino Vocamen
Divino Vocamen
5 months ago

“Rights ” always have a risk or a cost to those who have them …when the “Ruling Class ” convinces the “People ” that the “risk ” needs to be reduced …by limiting the “Rights ” there will soon be no “Rights ” …. the same logic used to deny the Rights of the Second Amendment …are now openly being used to deny many First Amendment Rights …The Ruling Class is limiting Free Speech …Religious Freedom , Freedom of Assembly and so on …all based on the same false logic …that claims the “welfare of the People ” requires a… Read more »

StLPro2A
StLPro2A
5 months ago
Reply to  Divino Vocamen

For once I agree with Bill O’Reilly. Bad guys shooting people is the price of freedom. Liberty is risky business. That’s why our Founding Fathers recognized our God-given right to shoot back.

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

This guy’s faulty study brings to mind the single largest murder in US history that I recall, and it was NOT perpetrated by the use of firearms though the same agency that attampts to control THAT tool also controls the tool used in thisi incident. The primary “tool of choice” was NOT a firearm, Nope. It was a different item, of which milioins of examples roam about the countr freely, nearly unrestricted. Of course, the standard meme declaring THAT “tool” was the single source of the power unleashed to do the killing MUST be faulty… Yes, I’m speaking of the… Read more »

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

I had not heard that the tool of choice employed by the killer in Nova Scotia was NOT of the dreaded demonised super-gun class “assault weapon”. WHY have the media been silent on this one? All the reports I’ve read the actual weapon(s) used were not mentionied… but a storng connexioin has been made between the Joooonyer Trudeau’s “assault weapons ban” and THAT killing. This bit, together with everything else I’ve read about the incident, screams even louder “false flag” “set up” “pollitical hay”. Having observed “la famille Trudeau” over the past near half century, this would NOT be out… Read more »

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

quote: ” It makes no difference if homicides with guns or suicides with guns are reduced if the overall homicide or suicide rate is unaffected or increases” Oh but it most certainly DOES matter… IF one is out to demoinise the particular tool used in the effecting of the death in question. Morally it matters naught whether the perpetrator uses gasoline, a brick, hammer, kitchen knife, lance, machete, nine millimeter handgun or BMG fifty. Dead is dead, and wrongfully dead is wrong. The selection of tool by the killer is irrelevant… unless the one reporting has a specific end goal… Read more »

Dr. Smith
5 months ago

I hope you will change your post, my friend! You have confused Bubba Watson the golfer with NASCAR driver Bubba Wallace! =(

Ryben Flynn
Ryben Flynn
5 months ago

“The United States has the highest gun ownership, with 120.5 civilian firearms per 100 people. There are an estimated 393,347,000 total firearms in the United State. This means that there are more guns than there are people. Many people in the United States do not own guns, and many people own multiple guns.”
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/gun-ownership-by-country/
And after the gun buying spree the last 2 months it could be even higher.
Where the number of 89 per 100 came from in the graph is a mystery.

Catatonic
Catatonic
5 months ago
Reply to  Ryben Flynn

Catatonic laboriously performs the math & comes up with 1.205/person; looks in husband’s safe; looks in her own safe. My goodness, there are a lot of unarmed folks out there!!! 😉

Ansel Hazen
Ansel Hazen
5 months ago
Reply to  Catatonic

AH peers at that figure and thinks the decimal point might be one digit too far to the left for the neighborhood he lives in.

nrringlee
nrringlee
5 months ago

In order to resolve the problem of operational definitions it is important to give the task of creating definitions to one federal agency. That agency needs to be the US Department of Justice. Having multiple sources of definitions only causes confusion and confusion is the seed ground of propaganda. Having people like the Center for Disease Control and others weighing in predetermined with outcomes is not in the public interest. Congress knows that. Leftists and progressive politicians will shop for sympathetic bureaucrats who will twist data and outcomes to fit a preconceived notion. Funding CDC to do the work rightfully… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  nrringlee

, yes, we need a single government agency to create definitions for us, because no government agency has never redefined terms, like what a machine gun is, or lied to us.

Will Flatt
Will Flatt
5 months ago
Reply to  nrringlee

The reasons why CDC and other agencies are in this is because they were deliberately being used by leftists to promote false narratives and rigged data. These agencies have no business setting criminal justice policy!! Politicians who weaponize government agencies in pursuit of agendas that violate Constitutional Rights should be automatically stripped of their offices and prosecuted!!

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago

Our community spent decades to prepare for a SHTF event. We stockpiled food, guns, ammo, communication equipment and protective gear. Then, when a genetically modified, highly contagious and deadly virus escaped a Chinese Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan, infected over a million Americans and killed 75,000 of them, many in our community said “it’s just the flu, bro” and “they artificially inflate the death count”. I am not sure why, but I guess for some the realization that we are in a SHTF situation hasn’t settled in yet.

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CGGator Foxtrot Well at least some in your community know the difference between SHTF and not SHTF my state FL is open for business restaurants shops, beaches. If your community was devastated by all means I’m sorry, but this is not a SHTF situation here, matter of fact we got out of the wuhan flu ( cause that’s what it is ) scare very quickly here thanks to our state representatives and the people residing in the state of florida. Why are so many states opening back up? If indeed it’s as bad as Rachel maddow says even Bill Maher… Read more »

KenW
KenW
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

Laura Ingraham mentioned last night about how this Flu season was predicted to be more severe then usual, but no one it talking about “the Flu” anymore. only the ChiCom Flu-19.

COVID-19 sold a lot of guns.

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago
Reply to  KenW

let us hope a lot more folks go and get theirs as things “open up” again. Maybe a few of them have had their eyes opened, and won’t be so rock solid liberul in their voting any more. Plenty of them were shocked, even angry, when they realied the gun cuntrol edicts THEYhekped establish meant they could not take their new Very First Gun home with them, and could hot believe buying that gun was FAR HARDER than ordering a new toaster on Amazon. Just think.. Sears and Monkey Wards used to list handgun, milsurp rifle,s chotguns, new hunting rifles,… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI, congratulations to your government giving you permission to perform commerce. You must be proud. Over a million infected, 75,000 dead, 33 million unemployed, a record national debt, we keep printing and handing out money like communist countries in the 1980s, empty shelves in supermarkets, disruptions in the food production chain, airlines operating at 5% capacity, most restaurants, hotels and other businesses in the nation closed, most tourist resorts and attractions closed, many state and national parks closed, many beaches closed, and the government telling us what we are allowed to do. You have been well conditioned to believe that… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

Foxtrot
Have you ever been in a live fire situation? hopefully you have since you call yourself charlie foxtrot. I have been in live fire as well as a devastating house fire at 3am in the morning ( fully ingulfed) THAT TO ME IS SHTF SITUATION you and I shall agree to disagree you keep lookin at the world the way you want and I shall do the same.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

, you clearly do not understand the situation we are in right now, which was the point of my original reply. As long as the government and the media keeps you happy with political games, you will keep ignoring the problem.

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

Foxtrot
I understand this ..your scared and discussing this with you is like talking to a raccoon, stay in your home eat your handouts.
I have nothing more to say to you sir I feel sorry for you.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI, ignorance is bliss. Ignoring the dangers out there is certainly the easiest way to deal with them. That is, until you are confronted by them. What makes you think that I am staying home and eating handouts (whatever that even means)? Oh, yeah, your daily dose of propaganda makes you think that. LOL. You can feel sorry about me all you want. I already congratulated you to your government giving you permission to perform commerce. You seem to be very proud and comfortable with the slavery you live in. Just keep telling yourself: None of this is real! It… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

Foxtrot
You better be staying home the way you preach to everyone. Your soft wayyyy to soft for this world and what’s going on.
And yep I’m thinking you are wearing a mask watching CNN all day.KEEP YOUR SCARED GLASSES ON ,While the rest of us carry on.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI, LOL. You have been well trained by the various propaganda networks to parrot their talking points. The irony is that we wore masks at the VCDL Lobby Day rally in January in Virginia, because we wanted to protect ourselves from the government. Then, the liberal media was calling us potential terrorists. Now, wearing a mask to protect ourselves and others from a virus that escaped a Chinese Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan is somehow considered idiotic by our own community. LOL Make sure you give all your stockpiled N95 and P100 masks to your local hospital, as you… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CGGator Foxtrot So all these CATASTROPHIC numbers you preach are you reading the tea leaves for your info? Propaganda at your preferred outlet? you are the one dictating numbers not I so who you calling a slave? I work 10 hrs a day and train 5 days a week 4hrs a night ( and yes our dojo has been open) and we train without mask and on jujitsu nights we don’t wear them either, OMG!! I don’t have time for propaganda numbers, that sir falls on you. How many did you say again? Maybe YOU can be the doom and… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI, I preach CATASTROPHIC numbers? Can you point out which numbers you mean, please! If you don’t understand how a virus works, then it is easy to get confused by all the reporting and it is easy to get hoodwinked by the various propaganda outlets that just want to give you their version of reality, rose-colored or not. PS: Good luck with your training. Again, ignoring the problem doesn’t make it go away. It is just a childish response. The virus will hit you eventually, unless you engage in very basic protective measures. Wearing a mask is quite similar to… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CGGator Foxtrot I’m so sorry for disagreeing with your findings DR. Fox since you are (going bull winkle here) MR. KNOW IT ALL but I disagree no I don’t have blinders on this is called a socialism dry run dictated by cabals WAYYYY over both parties heads including the president himself and until the guessile drops ( that’s a brand of trigger) that’s when all hope is gone so keep preaching brother teach us all what’s REALLY GOING ON. Like you have a fukn clue. Cause ya don’t none of us do. Until the guessille drops The numbers( your post… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

, those numbers aren’t CATASTROPHIC! They are a warning that people like you seem to ignore. Once those numbers become CATASTROPHIC, any warnings and discussions here are pointless. You will be fighting for your survival then and won’t have time to post your ignorance of the situation on the Internet.

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CF YOU ARE SUCH A POG you mean that’s not catastrophic? I fought for my survival in the Iran-iraq war for 6 years SO DON’T LECTURE ME BOUT SHIT.To hear you talk it’s the END OF THE WORLD like I said states are opening everywhere FL has BEEN open which tells me your an angry man following your democrat leaders you help put in office in your liberal state. And just where do you live DR Fox if I may ask? My state is governed by Republicans with some of the lowest numbers to be found ESPECIALLY for SENIOR CITIZENS… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI, name calling is easy. The FACT is that Florida should have never closed down the way it did. Also FACT is that WHEN that virus eventually hits Florida, your state will be hit hard. No name calling or conspiracy theory will prevent that! You know what might? Wearing a mask while indoors, washing your hands regularly and properly, stop touching your face and maybe taking some supplements. So, it is really your choice! Protect yourself and others from that virus and don’t kill your fellow Americans and don’t wreck your state’s economy, or continue to ignore the dangers of… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CF You don’t even know what a POG is do you? Here’s a clue it’s a Military thang CALL OF DUTY CHARLIE FOXTROT. You just keep wearing your mask like your daddy tells you too okay? And what do you know about being under fire and fighting for your survival? ( NOT THE PLAYSTATION KIND) Ever been part of a mortar attack at 0130? Hows about surveying a new airstrip while snipers take pop shots atcha? Yea don’t tell me bout fighting for survival you know nothing. Watch out for those scary covid zombie squirrels on your land. They are… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

, POG! I have not heard that in a while! Were you and llB? I knew that there was something personable about you!
The Cluster will make a very poor draftee.

Finnky
Finnky
5 months ago

@CF – I highly doubt that the disease will ever be truly catastrophic on its own. But then my idea of catastrophic may be a bit more stringent then most. Just as 9/11 did not rise to the level of catastrophic at level of US as a whole – while it’s impact on our society has been far more catastrophic. At this point I don’t think SAR-Cov-2 deaths will hit seven digits this year. Long before it does we will have gone full communist (as you’ve been saying) and violence and starvation could eclipse COVID as leading causes of death.… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CF
You remember now? Those CATASTROPHIC numbers o yea that’s right you did post that..damn lemme give em to ya again one million infected , 77,000 dead 33million unemployed you posted this if you can’t remember what you said maybe you should look back at your (war and peace) length lectures your offering for knowledge on the message board before you ask WHAT CATASTROPHIC NUMBERS ? Your such a POG.

Finnky
Finnky
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

@SEMPAI – Seems to me you are totally misunderstanding what @ClusterFuck is saying. He is saying that we should view the world as it is in order to better prevent governmental takeover and avoid people becoming dependent upon governmental handouts. @CF also says that recognizing real risks does not justify hiding in your closet – simply taking reasonable precautions. An equivalent would be riding a motorcycle while denying that accidents happen – personally I almost always wore leathers and a full face helmet while accepting the risk I could not manage Your response that he should enjoy his governmental handouts… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago
Reply to  Finnky

@Finnky, Thank you for explaining what the Cluster Funk meant to write. As to life fire, if one can survive the FEBA, every other “emergency” pales to insignificance.

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@Cluster Funk, Why don’t you describe the problem situation that we are in rather than just alluding to it?

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago
Reply to  SEMPAI

, Yeah, If I died of the Chinese Corona virus, that would be the biggest joke that Karma could play! Never mind Cluster Funk, all he does is criticize, but has no plan to offer.

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

@ Wild Bill
Yea he’s a special kinda democrat isn’t he? still got a Clinton sticker on his Volkswagen bus, camper edition too !!

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago

@CharlieFoxtrot
You are in the wrong place if your trying to scare people the way they have gotten to you sir

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago

@USA, and your source for your information is? Also, can you explain why we suddenly have so many people dying from ALL causes, where mislabeling simply does not matter? It is easy to ignore something that hasn’t hit you yet. After all, ignorance is bliss. Our community is being manipulated by people that have their own agendas, like staying employed at Fox News. Keep in mind that if you are wrong and this virus is exactly what the data says it is, then this virus is a boomer generation killer that will change the voting landscape by November. Joe Biden… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago

@USA, got it. No source, because you are “in the bush for 2 weeks”, yet you post here. OK, makes a lot of sense!

Since everybody dies in the end and it is only the ride that matters, I assume that you also have not prepared for and not doing anything about tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, a chemical factory accident, a biolab accident (which is what this is), or a nuclear reactor exploding.

Why do you own guns again?

RoyD
RoyD
5 months ago

CF: I had to chuckle about the “in the bush” thing myself. It didn’t take away from what else he said, which I agreed with. It just reminded me of all those, “mountain man”, “Alaska wilderness”, type shows which are fake as can be. Most of those shows really are about people who have to drive a little more than ten miles to get to the nearest Wal-Mart. Hah!

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago

@USA, you can’t move away from a crashing economy!

Here is something scary, the liberals in those hard-hit cities, like New York City, now want to move out to the country side.

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

His numbers are pretty close to reality, from a number of sources I’ve read that are trustworthy. New York hostials were reportint EVERY DEATH from any cause, as a ChinaFlu death IF the victim tested positive for the virus after death. Heart attack, liver failure, lung cancer, IF the guy had the virus in him it was counted as a ChiVirus death. WHY? Two reasone.. first, FedGov WANT the nubmers to be high to :justify” continued lockdowns at state levels, second, the hospital gets paid $13K for someone dying in their care, IF that death can be marked down as… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Tionico

, even if marking people off in the wrong column would be happening, we still end up with way more people dead than normal. The data says we are undercounting COVID-19 deaths and not overcounting them. If we were overcounting them, then we would have just another serious problem at out hands. What would be the cause of death of those people? Is the flu suddenly killing people 10 times than normal? Is there another unknown disease that is suddenly killing off people?

Finnky
Finnky
5 months ago

@USA – Did you not read @CF’s early posts on this topic before replying to them? He wrote that we are in a SHTF situation due to parallel threats of rising communism and COVID. COVID is a tool being used to dramatically increase governmental power over all aspects of our lives – while they print money and destroy the economy so that even those who were reasonably financially secure can be made dependent upon governmental support. You and @CF (and the rest of us) should be supporting each other in resistance to governmental intrusion rather than quibbling over reality of… Read more »

Arny
Arny
5 months ago

Look up the death toll for COVD DEATHS for Adams County PA. It was at 5 then after threats of being sued they lowered it back to 3. I know of one death. Older gentleman died at home from a heart attach. Never had the virus. But on death certificate they listed his death as COVD. His wife raised hell. I have relatives being in healthcare hospitals are empty in my area. But yet still locked down why ? I’m on the MD/PA line. Work in MD doing construction. Have been Essential from day 1. I knew then this was… Read more »

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Arny

@Arny, so, I looked up the Wuhan virus death toll in Adams County, PA. It is 5, not 3. So, they didn’t lower it! Source: https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx Adams County, PA, had 159 positive cases and out of those 5 died. That makes it a case fatality rate of 3.14%. If, as you say, only 3 died, that would make it a case fatality rate of 1.89%. The true case fatality rate is slightly lower, but unknown due to lack of testing and asymptomatic cases. Adams County, PA, has a population of about 103,000. That means only 0.15% of the population tested… Read more »

SEMPAI
SEMPAI
5 months ago
Reply to  Tionico


YOU DID NOT JUST POST THAT trotting fox is not going to like your numbers, or the fact that these numbers are FABRICATED?
He is the leading source for all things C19.
I sincerely hope you checked with him first.

Finnky
Finnky
5 months ago
Reply to  Tionico

@Tionico – I can certainly believe the medical industry would respond to such a financial motivator to over report. It way be slightly inflating reported COVID deaths, however COVID attacks every organ in the body, seemingly starting with the blood. When oxygen carry capacity of blood is reduced enough, ALL organs in the body will eventually fail. Thus COVID induces heart attacks and liver failure. Far harder to imagine it causing cancer – but anyone who has had cancer is going to have a compromised immune system and be more susceptible to any infection (viral or bacterial). Someone with lung… Read more »

ConfusedForeignGirl
ConfusedForeignGirl
5 months ago

@CGGator Foxtrot i think a lot of people only consider shtf (very silly saying. Why would you even throw that at a fan?) scenero as something where you can shoot at the threat. A virus? That’s boring so it must not be real! The real life shtf scenero is much more scary. I’m a photographer up in Seattle. I haven’t been allowed to work this entire time because non-essential and several clients demanding my services. I’ve lost several repeat clients that believe this whole thing is overblown. I have two weeks of savings left, I have a really bad health… Read more »

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

inform yuorself on WHAT COMMON SUPPLEMENTS you can feed your body to srengthen YOUR immune system so WHEN the virus piunces upon you you will drive it off, form natural antibodies that wilkl give ou immunity fo rlife. THIS is something I’ve not seen ANY government agency disseminate. WHY? They WANT this to be a bigger deal than it really is so they can CONTROL. Oour governor here in Washington (I’m 65 miles soutn of you) is a control freak, maniacal with power, and wielding it like the little communist dictator he is. It was HIS stupididty let those folks… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@CFG, One can not be convicted for using the term SHTF in place of what we really intend. As to the rest of it, what aid can you gather in two weeks? Go vegetarian and that will stretch your budget and aid your immune system. Use a mask, wash your hands, and don’t touch your face.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

@Wild Bill, I already described the problem situation that we are in: “a genetically modified, highly contagious and deadly virus escaped a Chinese Biosafety Level 4 lab in Wuhan, infected over a million Americans and killed 75,000 of them” “Over a million infected, 75,000 dead, 33 million unemployed, a record national debt, we keep printing and handing out money like communist countries in the 1980s, empty shelves in supermarkets, disruptions in the food production chain, airlines operating at 5% capacity, most restaurants, hotels and other businesses in the nation closed, most tourist resorts and attractions closed, many state and national… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@CF, Ok, now I can quibble. A virus killed 72,000 (as of Fox news last night) but even if it were 75,000 and the numbers were accurate, then that is about the numbers that die of the ordinary flu each year. The older we get, as individuals, the more things nature uses to get rid of us. A virus is just one more of nature’s techniques.
As to the economy, the shut down, and resulting shortages were because of governors and mayors orders, not the virus.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

@Wild Bill, you are making the same mistake that those talking heads on Fox News make. The flu kills 12,000-61,000 in 12 months. The Chinese virus has killed close to 60,000 in the month of April alone, while most of the country was shutdown. Almost 60,000 in just 1 month vs. 61,000 in 12. That alone tells you that this virus is probably ten times more dangerous than the flu. Here are some Chinese virus death numbers for you: Mar. 6: 17 deaths Apr. 6: 10,986 deaths May 6: 73,431 deaths The flu doesn’t do that! Many of the economic… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@CF, Not my mistake. I got the figure from Fox News. Shutting down our economy and letting the Communist Chinese assume world leadership would be far worse than the Chinese Corona virus.
American lives ruined by an, self inflicted, economic depression will destroy millions of lives. Hot war with China … billions of lives.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

@Wild Bill, I assumed that you got that figure from Fox News. Like any other media, they aren’t telling you the truth. On average, the flu kills about 1,000-5,100 Americans per month. The Wuhan virus just killed close to 60,000 Americans in a single month. These two viruses are not even in the same ballpark in terms of mortality. People, like those commentators on Fox News, saying otherwise are just lying to you to push their agenda. Repeating such information completely unverified does make it your mistake, though! I agree that shutting down our economy is a bad idea, but… Read more »

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@CF, As to your first sentence, if you assumed my stats were from Fox then why did you accuse me of making a mistake? As to your last sentence, to which government do you refer? We do not have one government in the US. We have dual sovereignty.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago
Reply to  Wild Bill

@Wild Bill, repeating stats without verifying them is rather problematic. All you did was repeating a lie that you have been told. You would not consider that a mistake?

I meant the government as an institution and not a specific government! Would you fight one government when it violates your rights and not fight the other government when it does the same thing? That doesn’t even make sense to me, neither does your question!

Wild Bill
Wild Bill
5 months ago

@CF, How do you suggest that I verify Fox’s stats?
Yes, you have to institute legal proceedings against the governmental entity that harmed you, not the one that did not harm you. If this does not make sense to you, then you need reprograming.

Charlie Foxtrot
Charlie Foxtrot
5 months ago

@USA, did Y2K cause more than 20% unemployment, a record national debt, the country to get shut down, and was used to take your rights away? Did I miss something?

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago

Nope. But did it have folks “prepping” and “hoarding” like crazy? Yep. I know one guy bought a 53 foot dry van, put it in his backyard, and filled it with about ten tonnes of packaged and preserved grains, beans, canned stuff, powders, grain mil, “survival” stuff. After not opening it for ten years (cause nothing happened) he made a VERY shocking discovery.. RATS had moved in and destroyed it all. Dozens of five gallon buckets full of grains…. they chewed throgh the top covers, ate thorugh that fivef gallons of what or owts or pinto beans, ate THROUGH the… Read more »

Jaque
Jaque
5 months ago

No other country has a Second Amendment. Only America, a country founded on religious freedom. The founders recognized the importance of armed citizens in preserving freedoms. These freedoms are enshrined in the Bill of Rights. If Americans choose to trade their arms for a promise of implied safety, they will quickly regret that decision.

And there will never be a resurrection of the Second Amendment once it is gone. I will not trade my arms for a promise by any government they will insure my safety. Never.

Tionico
Tionico
5 months ago
Reply to  Jaque

EVEN if “they” manage to “repeal” that pesky Second Article of Ammendment, the RIGHT TO ARMS will remain. It will only be used by those to treasure it enough to risk life and liberty to maintain it. I believe there will be enough of us to be signficant when it counts, further down the road, once the Keepers are busy about stuffing their own maws and “think” they av all the guns.