Data Shows Percent of Fatalities in People Hit by Gunfire: Highly Variable, by City

Rate of Male Firearms Injury
Rate of Male Firearms Injury

U.S.A.-(AmmoLand.com)- This writer has been interested in the percent of fatalities of people who are deliberately shot, for decades. It is not an easy number to quantify.  The inverse of that number is the percent of those shot who survive.

According to Battle Casualties and Medical Statistics: U.S. Army Experience in the Korean War, 13.5% of troops shot with bullets in Korea, died. Most of those were from rifle and machine gun fire, hit with full metal jacketed bullets.

In 2014, this correspondent looked at numbers from Wisconsin (young, black, males) and Chicago. The Wisconsin numbers were from 2010, Chicago numbers were from 2013 and 2014.

In Wisconsin, in 2010, the number was 11.4% fatalities for young, black, males. Source: Lethality of shootings in Wisconsin, 2014, Ammoland,

In Chicago, for part of 2014, it was 14.8%. For  2013 it was 17.1 %. Those numbers looked reasonably similar to the casualty statistics for the Korean War.

A 2017 study reveals that is happenstance.

Information collected by Jeff Asher at fivethirtyeight.com shows a significant difference in the lethality of shootings per city.  Jeff did a good job in collecting data from different cities over several years.

Asher analyzed 14 cities to determine the percentage of shootings which resulted in death. These numbers were for 2016. In the cities Asher tabulated, the three highest were Baltimore Maryland, 29%; New Orleans, Louisiana, 27.9%; and Newark, New Jersey, at 25.3%. The three lowest cities were Boston, Massachusetts, at 15.3%; Charlotte, North Carolina, at 12.5%; and Cincinnati, Ohio, at 12.2%.

In the middle, were Milwaukee, Wisconsin at 17.6%, San Francisco, California, at 17.1%; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, at 16.8%. Chicago and New York are 16.3% and 16.5%; Detroit, Michigan, Louisville, Kentucky, and Nashville, Tennessee are:

  • 20.7%
  • 20.2%
  • 19.7%.

The numbers did not vary much by year, for each location. Consider the numbers in Chicago from HeyJackass.com:

Numbers calculated from the site, for year through July, percent killed:

  • 2014  16.5%
  • 2015  17.3%
  • 2016  16.8%
  • 2017  19.0%
  • 2018  19.1%
  • 2019  18.8%
  • 2020  19.3 %
  • 2021  17.2% thru July 21.

The significant variation in the numbers by the city can be the result of many factors. Asher noted a large percentage of the casualties in Baltimore, the city with the highest fatality rate, are very close to one of the most advanced trauma centers in the nation.  He suggests access to advanced trauma care is not a major factor.

The suspicion of this author is the intention, formed by local culture, is very significant. If the local culture and mythos promote the death of the adversary as the ideal goal, more people will be killed.

If the local culture and mythos promote shooting as a means of avoiding danger and escaping a situation; there will be a lower percentage of fatalities.

Many other factors are difficult to take into account. Everything from population density to age distribution, to the number of shots fired, to police response times and percent of cleared homicides could make significant differences.

These numbers only represent those who are hit.  Victims which were missed are not counted.  It is nearly impossible to define a miss which was intended to hit separate from a miss by intention or happenstance.  In some locations, minor wounds may not be reported, so as to avoid official notice. Such avoidance could make a significant difference in percentages. It is possible a significant number of shots fired in anger are passed off as accidents.

It is much better to be missed or missing from the scene of a shooting than to be counted among the casualties.


About Dean Weingarten:Dean Weingarten

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30-year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.

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mlhtd51
mlhtd51
10 days ago

Blacks 14% of the Population, 86% of the Problem. Enough Said.

loveaduck
loveaduck
10 days ago
Reply to  mlhtd51

Reasons for that?

Bubba
Bubba
7 days ago
Reply to  loveaduck

This is due to the fact that the black portion of America have been misled and used as scapegoats for decades by the people they elected. (Piece of shit Democrats) It’s unfortunate. 22 trillion dollars spent on the black community since the civil rights movement. About 80% of it went into the politicians and lobbyists pockets. Listen to Bob Woodson. He was part of the original MLK movement and left after the movement ended because of the corrupt use of the gains from the likes of the Jessie Jackson’s and Al Sharpton’s that took advantage and got rich by keeping… Read more »

Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
17 hours ago
Reply to  Bubba

Bubba, the Left knows this and that’s why they’re hell-bent on flooding the country with illegal aliens who vote left at least 75-80% of the time!

BaerArms
BaerArms
18 hours ago
Reply to  mlhtd51

its worse than that. its majority 18-24 year old black men so instead of 14% its more like 4-5% of the population accounts for majority of the problem. but hey dont promote black dads staying in the home bc the prisons need our tax money

Russn8r
Russn8r
17 hours ago
Reply to  BaerArms

Understood, but I’m not sure I buy into dads not staying as such a big problem per se. Through history, men have gone to war & died. Did all their kids become criminals? No. Better to have a dad, but mom’s can raise kids too. But they often pussify them.

Russn8r
Russn8r
18 hours ago
Reply to  mlhtd51

Why is it enough said?

Last edited 17 hours ago by Russn8r
Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
17 hours ago
Reply to  mlhtd51

No, the stat is 13% of the population and 52% of the crime.
That may be accounted for in that most blacks live in major cities, the same blue s#!tholes that are anti-cop and weak on crime. Also factor in that the system breaks up black families going on 60 years now. And a broken family breeds young hoodlums.

Russn8r
Russn8r
17 hours ago
Reply to  Henry Bowman

Other big factors:

Shitty government “education”.

Welfare.

Democrat race fluffing.

I grew up in a broken home without a father much of the time. Never had an urge to rob & murder.

Blacks face a perfect storm of all factors thanks to racist commie-Demokkkrats & corrupt cuck Vichy Republicans.

Last edited 17 hours ago by Russn8r
JSNMGC
JSNMGC
17 hours ago
Reply to  Russn8r

Dysfunctional micro-culture. The murder and non-negligent homicide rate in the Englewood neighborhood of Chicago is 15,000% higher than the area in which I live. Thankfully, there is no data to verify it, but I believe the rate of firearm ownership in the area I live in is much, much higher than in Englewood. The culture in the very specific neighborhood of Englewood is vastly different than the culture in the area in which I live. While each criminal is responsible for their own actions, and there are many fine people who live in Englewood, the percentage of criminals in Englewood… Read more »

Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
17 hours ago
Reply to  JSNMGC

Neighborhoods don’t create criminals as much as criminals prefer to hang out together…

JSNMGC
JSNMGC
16 hours ago
Reply to  Henry Bowman

Spent much time in the Englewood, Garfield Park, or Austin neighborhoods of Chicago? A large percentage of the children grow-up with no discipline. By the time they are 10, the average child has almost no impulse control compared to the impulse control of the average child who grew up in an area with a healthy culture. When the teacher in one of the those neighborhoods with a dysfunctional micro-culture calls home and speaks with the mother or grandmother about a child misbehaving, that adult will defend the poor behavior of the child and lash-out in anger at the teacher. The… Read more »

Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
16 hours ago
Reply to  JSNMGC

No, I grew up in Gary, Indiana, which I would argue was worse than any neighborhood in Chitown. It’s again not the geography. As you correctly identified, though, it’s the lack of parenting, “publik edjookashun”, lack of positive male role models, etc. Culture follows upbringing. One generation after the government created policies that broke up black families, you had “gangsta culture” well entrenched and filling the void. That, and leftist indoctrination. In the end, The Left built that!

JSNMGC
JSNMGC
16 hours ago
Reply to  Henry Bowman

I agree with you – there are a lot of pieces to the culture. It’s not normal for a 12 year-old to commit an armed car jacking or become pregnant.

I just don’t believe the people in those neighborhoods can’t change the culture. Democrat politicians encouraged it and subsidized it, but people have free will and people have the ability to break the cycle or at least break free of the culture – as many have.

Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
16 hours ago
Reply to  JSNMGC

One assumes that the people in these places – most of whom are 3rd or 4th generation downstream from the beginnings of these bad policies – want to change it, or worse don’t even realize the cause of it all. Ignorance is NOT bliss…

JSNMGC
JSNMGC
16 hours ago
Reply to  Henry Bowman

That’s my point – if the community (the majority of the people living in those neighborhoods) wanted to change the culture, they could.

They have decided not to change the culture of the community, but some have certainly broken free of it.

Find a politician who will say those two sentences.

Russn8r
Russn8r
17 hours ago
Reply to  JSNMGC

That ‘microculture’ is too similar to ‘microcultures’ in other Demokkkrat-run cities. Local variants breed in each D-run petri dish, but it’s effectively an archipelagic metastasizing culture imposed from above by neo-feudal commie-Ds who create & enforce the national & local conditions that inevitably grow it.

Last edited 16 hours ago by Russn8r
Henry Bowman
Henry Bowman
17 hours ago
Reply to  Russn8r

Sadly, you are correct. All these factors.

Russn8r
Russn8r
16 hours ago
Reply to  Henry Bowman

How could I forget?

The phony “War on Drugs”.

Minimum Wage.

Gun Control / “gun free” zones.

Last edited 16 hours ago by Russn8r
KDad
KDad
10 days ago

They should have shown stats for Illinois, mainly the Chicago area.

gregs
gregs
10 days ago

i would theorize the vast majority of males getting shot in this article are engaged in criminal behavior and not just on their way to church.
dean, you may have something there with intent. if you don’t value life, it ain’t no big thing to kill someone who disses you.

Tionico
Tionico
10 days ago
Reply to  gregs

Different groups may be the ones pushing this. In some cities, the MS 13 and narcotraficante crowd could easily have a much stronger incentive to make sure there are no witnesses who could ever identify the shooters. In other areas, local gangs might be more about keeping score, intimidation, controlling turf, etc. It would take some serious (and perhaps a tad on the unhealthy side of things) to dig deeply enough to learn. Each inner city “culture will be a bit different. I sort of suspect the long standing traditoinal “da fm’ly” derived city cultures would reveal different underlying drives… Read more »

MB
MB
11 days ago

Looks like black lives don’t really matter to other black people. They need t stop the culture of violence and self hatred.

Bobocat
Bobocat
10 days ago
Reply to  MB

The only time black lives matter to blacks is when there is a check.

Bubba
Bubba
7 days ago
Reply to  MB

If you break down the actual FBI stats based on 100,000 people.
Blacks commit crimes 7 to 1 white.
Those are FBI stats.
This goes back to what I said earlier in this thread. They have been duped by their own leader for decades.
If they were truly helped by conservatives. They would be an unstoppable Conservative force.

JPM
JPM
11 days ago

Someone will undoubtedly try to make these numbers out to be racist. If so, then they will be correct as the numbers are broken out by race. Some actual racists will say that the numbers indicate “white privilege”. Some will claim the numbers are fake. The numbers gathered are indicative of something liberals and Democrats don’t want to admit, but is blatantly obvious to anyone with a working brain.

Last edited 11 days ago by JPM
Patriot Solutions
Patriot Solutions
11 days ago

Govtech invasion of Ammoland is getting sued by the Class. Big Tech is actually Govtech.

AdTrader, Inc v. Google LLC, 5:17-CV-07082-BLF Northern District of California

Should always pre-write your posts on Word with date and time then post and save off-line for when you sue for being manipulated and censored. Class Action suits in many cases will find you and request your inclusion.

Patriot Solutions
Patriot Solutions
12 days ago

Got any stats on shooting Zombies like discussed in Bezos CIA Amazon terms?

42.10. Acceptable Use;

https://aws.amazon.com/service-terms/

Knute Knute
Knute Knute
12 days ago

What would be really interesting is these data parsed by caliber and bullet type. Unfortunately, that data is very seldom available. For some strange reason, the authorities often claim to not know the weapon’s caliber, even with the weapon in their possession!
I am left to assume that either many departments lack any officers that can read… or else the data is being kept secret on purpose.

Knute Knute
Knute Knute
12 days ago
Reply to  Knute Knute

What in my post could’ve possibly led you to think I’d give a rat’s ass about you foolish spammers?
I’ve a news flash for you. Nobody listens to your spam anymore. Annoying people does not make them buy your snake oil.

Tionico
Tionico
10 days ago
Reply to  Knute Knute

MODERATORS

when will we get a “flag for spam” feature here? And block spammer as well.

Finnky
Finnky
12 days ago
Reply to  Knute Knute

Along those same lines, it jumped out at me NJ’s fatality rate is among the highest – yet hollow points are banned in that state. Either the ban is ineffective, HP bullets are no more deadly, or Dave’s assessment is correct. There is is plenty of evidence on effectiveness of HP, so we can eliminate that option. I’d say both of the others are true. NJ’s law is ineffective and onerous on good people so should be stricken from the books. Dave is right in his assessment of underlying cause of elevated fatality rate. i would say that valuing human… Read more »

Tank
Tank
12 days ago

Of those allegedly legitimate numbers (which we all know data can be easily parsed/cherry picked to be interpreted using Hegelian dialectic dogma) were black on black crimes in inner cities ?

What percentage of that petri dish’s sampling’s cluster was vs. White rural areas sampling’s ?

Facts cease to be facts just b/c some entity or research study says so.

There is no honest/trustworthy public opinion there is only published opinion in media controlled Corporate Fascist Dictatorship.

Tionico
Tionico
10 days ago
Reply to  Tank

well then, I guess WE all got told, hey?

Take your alledgely hegelian dogmutt and go find your own numbers. This guy spent a LOT of time and enerty digging out the numbers and putting them together to present some theories. But the hard numbers do not lie.

News flash: Inncer city neighbourhoods do NOT have any “white rural sreas” to sample, and are horse of an entirely different colour. The study was ABOUT iner city incidents, made clear from the git go.

Reason much?

uncle dudley
uncle dudley
12 days ago

Looking at figure 2 of the race of gunshot victims did you also have the number of the race of the shooters who caused these injuries.
This would be interesting to know as well and it may paint a bigger picture.

swmft
swmft
11 days ago
Reply to  uncle dudley

this was all supposed black on black, yet some may be hispanic gangs and black,innercity gang warfare is nothing new I think some are in low police areas and have time to target whom they are after. bet the numbers from areas that defended police go way up and the numbers of overall shootings

Tionico
Tionico
10 days ago
Reply to  uncle dudley

I’d guess a large percentage of these incidents never had the shooter identified. Hard to tell what race the perp is when he pops three and bats feet, or his getaway car driver burns out to quit the scene. ALso hard to tell the colour of someon’s skin wihen they are inside a car with dark tinted windows, aare wearing a black or dark grey hoodie, the now mandatory mug nappie, a crazy number of shich are butt-ugly black material.