The gun sales and National Instant Background Check System (NICS) checks continue the trend in 2023 of the third or fourth highest month on record and the ongoing trend of over a million guns sold during the month. The National Shooting Sports Foundation has reported gun sales, as estimated by NICS, have been over 1 million a month for 52 months.
Gun sales during November 2023 were about 1.56 million firearms. NICS checks for the month were about 2.65 million, making them the third-highest gun sales for November and the fourth-highest NICS checks.
Gun sales in November of 2021 were 1.51 million, November of 2022 were 1.49 million, and November of 2023 were 1.56 million. Those numbers are similar. During the last presidential election year in November, gun sales were a bit higher. In 2016, there were 1.62 million, and in 2020, there were 1.92 million. It seems likely firearms sales will rise in the coming presidential election year of 2024. NICS background checks vary considerably as a multiple of gun sales. This is because NICS checks are used for multiple purposes, and multiple gun sales can be done with one NICS check.
There have been about 13.57 million gun sales in 2023 so far, using the NICS numbers. In December, estimates show another 1.7 million gun sales, for a total of over 15 million guns sold through NICS in 2023.
Despite inflation, technology has increased productivity to the point serviceable guns can be purchased for relatively little labor. On sale, a serviceable AR15 type rifle has been seen for less than $400. A serviceable 9mm pistol has been on sale for under $200, .22 semi-automatic rifles for under $150, .22 semi-automatic pistols for under $200, and 12 gauge pump shotguns for under $200. $100 spent in 2023 is roughly equivalent to $1 spent in 1900. In terms more people can relate to, $100 spent in 2023 is equivalent to about $7 spent in 1973. In 1973, the cheapest Marlin semi-auto .22 was advertised at $57.95. They could likely be picked up, on sale, for $40, which would be about $571 in 2023 dollars.
Low prices in constant dollars are one of the reasons for a rise in base gun sales over the last four years. Another is an increasing acceptance of gun ownership and the utility of guns for the defense of self and others. A third is the increasingly chaotic conditions reflected in urban crime statistics and international affairs. A fourth is inflation and the expectation of a rise in prices.
Ammunition prices are expected to increase in January 2024. Vista Outdoors announced price increases based on a forecast shortage of gunpowder.
Anticipating price increases in 2024 could boost December sales. Guns and ammunition are durable. Guns last for centuries with a little care. Ammunition lasts for many decades. Both are inflation hedges and can be used for practical purposes. Both can be bartered for other items.
If the United States regains political stability and the international situation becomes more stable (the two are highly related), this correspondent expects constant dollar gun and ammunition prices to stabilize. Gun sales will drop as the market readjusts. If chaos and uncertainty continue, as seems likely, gun sales will continue at the new normal, or they will rise unless stopped by governmental action.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
Guns, gold and groceries continue to make sense.
ammo
To my way of thinking, appropriate ammo is not a separate element from the “guns” aspect. A gun without ammo is simply a paperweight. Of course, I would agree with you that ammo is a required part of being ready. It makes for an excellent bartering medium. As that old saw goes about gasoline and ammunition: You can never have too much… unless you’re on fire.
Oldvet, that’s something called “wisdom.”. It often comes along with some white in the whiskers, although not always
Me too. As I’m sure you did, I earned every one of ’em.