GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA – -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates June 2019 firearms sales at 973,500 units, a year-over-year increase of 3.8% from June 2018.
Likely single handgun sales (544,807) increased year-over-year by 4.0% and single long-gun sales (322,033) decreased year-over-year by 0.1%. All other likely firearms sales (106,660) increased year-over-year by 16.9%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks likely to be unrelated to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for June, some 2,291,066, a “record” for June) cannot be taken at face value, as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. For example, in June the state of Kentucky conducted over 350,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 16,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sale
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “while the industry will welcome the June year-over-year sales increase, it is an increase that falls within the slowest sales period of the year. For the first six months of 2019, sales amounted to about 6.6 million units which, with the fall and year-end seasons still coming up, is on target to reach the whole-year total of about 13.5 million units that SAAF predicted at the beginning of the year.”
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Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)